luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Bills at Colts, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Colts 30–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.2 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Bills were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:24 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
Indianapolis Colts 20

November 10, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Bills −4.5

Luck index +11 Bills about even · −11 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 44 IND 13
  2. 2 BUF 34 IND 10
  3. 3 BUF 30 IND 10
  4. 4 BUF 30 IND 13
  5. 5 BUF 20 IND 7
  6. 6 BUF 20 IND 10
  7. 7 BUF 21 IND 13
  8. 8 BUF 22 IND 17
  9. 9 BUF 23 IND 21
  10. 10 BUF 29 IND 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 89% of them, Colts 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+45.2%
Bills by 9–1623.4%
Bills by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation1.5%
Colts by 1–88.2%
Colts by 9–162.1%
Colts by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:24 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +26% BUF IND: Turnover
2 Q1 9:53 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% IND IND: Turnover
3 Q2 9:26 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:23 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q2 0:18 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q3 5:43 The Colts fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 4:19 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% IND IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 2:51 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% BUF IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Baylon Spector (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 96% · Colts 4%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
0.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 89% · Colts 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Bills · Colts

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