Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024
Bills at Colts, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Colts 30–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.
Before kickoff the Bills were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:24 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bills.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 30 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Bills about even · −9 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 9, Colts win 1.
- 1 BUF 34 IND 0
- 2 BUF 41 IND 17
- 3 BUF 34 IND 14
- 4 BUF 26 IND 10
- 5 BUF 20 IND 7
- 6 BUF 34 IND 24
- 7 BUF 27 IND 20
- 8 BUF 25 IND 21
- 9 BUF 20 IND 17
- 10 BUF 14 IND 21
Your call
Did the Bills earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 91% of them, Colts 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 50.3% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Colts by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Gay, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- T. Bass, 47 yds made · 79% expected
- T. Bass, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Bills 8 for 54 yards, Colts 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:16 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:46 | Illegal Contact on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards | +5% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:27 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills, 15 yards | +5% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:46 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 8 yards | +3% IND +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:55 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +6% IND +1.7 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:05 | Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:12 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Quinton Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.4 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:24 | The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams | +26% BUF | IND: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 14:16 | The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:26 | The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:23 | The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +8% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:18 | The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +12% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 5:43 | The Colts fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% BUF | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 4:19 | The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +8% IND | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 2:51 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +7% BUF | IND: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Baylon Spector (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 92% · Colts 8%
- Final margin
- Bills by 10
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 7.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 91% · Colts 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Bills · 
Colts
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner