AFC East
Buffalo Bills: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Bills have won 83 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 84.0. Luck cost them 1.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+1.8 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−2.6).
2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.9 (+0.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–0 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 1–0 | +2.98 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 13.1 | −1.1 | 5–3 | −0.19 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 13–4 | 12.3 | +0.7 | 5–3 | −0.37 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 13.6 | −2.6 | 6–6 | −1.13 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 13–3 | 12.5 | +0.5 | 6–3 | +0.02 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 11–6 | 12.2 | −1.2 | 0–5 | −2.22 | 1–1 |
| 2020 | 13–3 | 11.2 | +1.8 | 5–1 | −0.91 | 2–1 |
| 2019 | 10–6 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 4–5 | +0.20 | 0–1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Bills take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Bills would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Week 5 | vs Jaguars | L 20–25 | 86% | −86 |
| 2025 Week 17 | vs Eagles | L 12–13 | 84% | −84 |
| 2023 Week 9 | @ Bengals | L 18–24 | 84% | −84 |
| 2022 Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 30–33 | 84% | −84 |
| 2023 Week 7 | @ Patriots | L 25–29 | 82% | −82 |
