AFC East
Buffalo Bills: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Bills have won 83 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 84.0. Luck cost them 1.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+1.8 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−2.3).
2026: 6–1 so far, replay wins 4.9 (+1.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–1 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 4–1 | −0.52 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 12.7 | −0.7 | 5–3 | −0.19 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 13–4 | 12.6 | +0.4 | 5–3 | −0.10 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 13.3 | −2.3 | 6–6 | −0.89 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 13–3 | 12.9 | +0.1 | 6–3 | −0.68 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 11–6 | 12.1 | −1.1 | 0–5 | −0.57 | 1–1 |
| 2020 | 13–3 | 11.2 | +1.8 | 5–1 | −0.06 | 2–1 |
| 2019 | 10–6 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 4–5 | +0.02 | 0–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −0.7 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 |
| 2024 | +0.4 | +0.56 | +0.12 | +0.52 | −0.05 | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| 2023 | −2.3 | −0.06 | −0.90 | −0.57 | −0.45 | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| 2022 | +0.1 | −0.56 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.06 | +0.08 |
| 2021 | −1.1 | +0.02 | −0.24 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.13 | +0.04 |
| 2020 | +1.8 | −0.30 | −0.19 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.49 |
| 2019 | +0.8 | +0.25 | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.15 | +0.12 |
| Since 2019 | −1.0 | −0.25 | −0.73 | −0.23 | −1.24 | +0.34 | +0.93 |
Are the Bills lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Bills have won 83 regular-season games from play worth 84.0: −1.0 wins of luck, the 15th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Bills had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from judgment calls (−1.2 wins) and kicks (−0.7 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 31–26 since 2019, where the replays give them 36.7 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Bills’ luckiest season?
2020: 13–3 from play worth 11.2 wins, +1.8 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2023: 11–6 from play worth 13.3 (−2.3).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Bills’ luckiest wins
Wins the Bills take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The Bills’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Bills would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 17 | vs Eagles | L 12–13 | 88% | −88 |
| 2022 Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 30–33 | 86% | −86 |
| 2023 Week 5 | vs Jaguars | L 20–25 | 86% | −86 |
| 2023 Week 7 | @ Patriots | L 25–29 | 82% | −82 |
| 2019 Week 4 | vs Patriots | L 10–16 | 74% | −74 |
