2019 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2019: game by game
The Bills went 10–6 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jets | W 17–16 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 2 | @ Giants | W 28–14 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 3 | vs Bengals | W 21–17 | 71% | +30 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | L 10–16 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 5 | @ Titans | W 14–7 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 31–21 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 8 | vs Eagles | L 13–31 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 9 | vs Washington | W 24–9 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 10 | @ Browns | L 16–19 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 11 | @ Dolphins | W 37–20 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 12 | vs Broncos | W 20–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | @ Cowboys | W 26–15 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 14 | vs Ravens | L 17–24 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 15 | @ Steelers | W 17–10 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 16 | @ Patriots | L 17–24 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 17 | vs Jets | L 6–13 | 59% | −59 |
| Wild Card | @ Texans | L 19–22 | 38% | −38 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.57 | +22.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.25 | +6.2 |
| Injuries | +0.15 | +7.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.12 | +0.8 |