luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Bills, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bills 13–6, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:17 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Kurt Coleman), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 13
Buffalo Bills 6

December 29, 2019 · New Era Field · Closing line: Jets −1.5

Luck index +59 Jets lucky · −59 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Bills win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 21 BUF 3
  2. 2 NYJ 23 BUF 13
  3. 3 NYJ 20 BUF 15
  4. 4 NYJ 9 BUF 7
  5. 5 NYJ 19 BUF 20
  6. 6 NYJ 23 BUF 27
  7. 7 NYJ 15 BUF 23
  8. 8 NYJ 10 BUF 22
  9. 9 NYJ 6 BUF 22
  10. 10 NYJ 3 BUF 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 41% of them, Bills 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+6.2%
Jets by 9–1612.4%
Jets by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bills by 1–826.4%
Bills by 9–1616.8%
Bills by 17+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 51 yds missed · 65% expected
  • S. Ficken, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • S. Ficken, 34 yds missed · 93% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • S. Ficken, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 2 for 13 yards, Bills 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets (Tarell Basham), 8 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 5:11 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q2 13:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Kurt Coleman), 15 yards, wiping out the play +19% NYJ +5.2 pts
Q2 8:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q3 12:28 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 7:00 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 13:54 Defensive Offside on the Bills, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:39 S. Ficken missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 4 of 10 from 45+ before +9% BUF NYJ: Punt
2 Q2 13:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Kurt Coleman), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +19% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q2 12:37 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 8:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 94 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 0:04 S. Ficken missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +9% BUF NYJ: Punt
6 Q3 4:52 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q3 3:37 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 14:54 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • John Brown (BUF WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cole Beasley (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Devin Singletary (BUF RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Lawson (BUF DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Demaryius Thomas (NYJ WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tom Compton (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 86% · Bills 14%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
1.5 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 41% · Bills 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Jets · Bills

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