Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Vikings, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bears stole one. They beat the Vikings 21–19, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): E. Pineiro made 22-yard field goal, worth 47 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Bears very lucky · −91 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Vikings win 9.
- 1 CHI 22 MIN 16
- 2 CHI 13 MIN 15
- 3 CHI 13 MIN 17
- 4 CHI 24 MIN 31
- 5 CHI 16 MIN 26
- 6 CHI 7 MIN 20
- 7 CHI 14 MIN 30
- 8 CHI 10 MIN 29
- 9 CHI 7 MIN 30
- 10 CHI 3 MIN 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.07 | worse by 0.05 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 | worse by 0.08 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 9% of them, Vikings 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 23.8% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 48.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bears by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 4.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Bailey, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Bailey, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- D. Bailey, 39 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Bailey, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Pineiro, 22 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:22 | The Vikings fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | MIN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 0:31 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +7% CHI | MIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CHI | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 6:53 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% CHI | CHI: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 6:25 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +42% MIN | CHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:36 | The Bears converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +32% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:58 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% MIN | CHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:12 | E. Pineiro made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +47% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
- Riley Reiff (MIN T), out · 0.9 pts
- Eric Kendricks (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Shamar Stephen (MIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Roquan Smith (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Bobby Massie (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Rashaad Coward (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
- Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 33% · Vikings 67%
- Final margin
- Bears by 2
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 4.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 9% · Vikings 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · 
Bears · 
Vikings
More from Week 17 2019
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 28–22 · replay 14% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 33–23 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 23–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 42–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jets at Bills NYJ 13–6 · replay 38% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 31–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 38–20 · replay 59% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 16–15 · replay 13% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 · replay 66% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 35–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 47–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 26–21 · replay 72% for the winner