Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Vikings, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Vikings 21–19, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:36 left): the Bears converted 4th & 9, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Bears very lucky · −91 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Vikings win 9.
- 1 CHI 23 MIN 17
- 2 CHI 35 MIN 37
- 3 CHI 23 MIN 27
- 4 CHI 6 MIN 13
- 5 CHI 14 MIN 24
- 6 CHI 14 MIN 28
- 7 CHI 10 MIN 27
- 8 CHI 0 MIN 21
- 9 CHI 3 MIN 27
- 10 CHI 9 MIN 41
Your call
Did the Bears earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.07 | worse by 0.05 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 | worse by 0.08 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 9% of them, Vikings 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 48.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Bailey, 37 yds made · 93% expected
- E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Bailey, 38 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Bailey, 39 yds made · 91% expected
- D. Bailey, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Pineiro, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Bears 3 for 34 yards, Vikings 3 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:39 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings, 15 yards | +6% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:25 | False Start on the Bears (David Montgomery), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CHI +3.4 pts |
| Q3 6:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Allen Robinson), 15 yards | +2% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix), 14 yards | +7% MIN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards | +5% CHI +1.4 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:22 | The Vikings fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | MIN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 0:31 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +7% CHI | MIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CHI | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 10:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 | +7% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 6:53 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CHI | CHI: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 6:25 | The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% MIN | CHI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:36 | The Bears converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +28% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:58 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% MIN | CHI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
- Riley Reiff (MIN T), out · 0.9 pts
- Eric Kendricks (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Shamar Stephen (MIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Roquan Smith (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Bobby Massie (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Rashaad Coward (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
- Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 36% · Vikings 64%
- Final margin
- Bears by 2
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 9% · Vikings 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · 
Bears · 
Vikings
More from Week 17 2019
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 28–22 · replay 13% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 33–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 23–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–21 · replay 81% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 42–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jets at Bills NYJ 13–6 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 31–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 38–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 16–15 · replay 14% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 35–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 47–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 26–21 · replay 71% for the winner