Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Texans, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Texans 35–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Titans were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:31 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 35 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Titans about even · −12 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 TEN 45 HOU 16
- 2 TEN 33 HOU 10
- 3 TEN 31 HOU 13
- 4 TEN 36 HOU 21
- 5 TEN 33 HOU 20
- 6 TEN 36 HOU 27
- 7 TEN 27 HOU 20
- 8 TEN 25 HOU 20
- 9 TEN 24 HOU 21
- 10 TEN 14 HOU 21
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 88% of them, Texans 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 45.1% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Texans by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Titans 5 for 37 yards, Texans 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 6:55 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Barkevious Mingo), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:35 | Defensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Derrick Henry), 10 yards | +5% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:42 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Texans, 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:35 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:58 | False Start on the Titans (Derrick Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:59 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:44 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:18 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 5:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Titans, 12 yards | 0% HOU +0.6 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:31 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:09 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +5% TEN | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:05 | The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:26 | The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:13 | The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:29 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Derrick Henry), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 542 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 | +5% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 1:09 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:11 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by a.mccarron · 5.9 pts
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Kenny Stills (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out · 0.5 pts
- D.J. Reader (HOU NT), out · 0.2 pts
- Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 100% · Texans 0%
- Final margin
- Titans by 21
- Luck in points
- 9.7 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 88% · Texans 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · 
Titans · 
Texans
More from Week 17 2019
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 28–22 · replay 13% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 21–19 · replay 9% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 33–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 23–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–21 · replay 81% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 42–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jets at Bills NYJ 13–6 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 31–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 38–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 16–15 · replay 14% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 47–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 26–21 · replay 71% for the winner