luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Texans, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 35–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:45 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 5, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 35
Houston Texans 14

December 29, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Titans −10

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 45 HOU 14
  2. 2 TEN 41 HOU 17
  3. 3 TEN 26 HOU 7
  4. 4 TEN 38 HOU 23
  5. 5 TEN 37 HOU 24
  6. 6 TEN 34 HOU 24
  7. 7 TEN 24 HOU 17
  8. 8 TEN 31 HOU 26
  9. 9 TEN 26 HOU 24
  10. 10 TEN 13 HOU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 87% of them, Texans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+41.7%
Titans by 9–1624.3%
Titans by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Texans by 1–88.7%
Texans by 9–162.9%
Texans by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 8.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:31 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:05 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:45 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:40 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% TEN HOU: Punt
5 Q1 1:26 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:13 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:09 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q3 4:11 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by a.mccarron · 5.9 pts
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenny Stills (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • D.J. Reader (HOU NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Titans by 21
Luck in points
12.6 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 87% · Texans 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Titans · Texans

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