luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2019: game by game

The Titans went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.1.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Browns W 43–13 87% +13
Week 2 vs Colts L 17–19 20% −20
Week 3 @ Jaguars L 7–20 9% −9
Week 4 @ Falcons W 24–10 27% +73
Week 5 vs Bills L 7–14 30% −30
Week 6 @ Broncos L 0–16 10% −10
Week 7 vs Chargers W 23–20 20% +80
Week 8 vs Buccaneers W 27–23 16% +84
Week 9 @ Panthers L 20–30 55% −55
Week 10 vs Chiefs W 35–32 36% +64
Week 12 vs Jaguars W 42–20 92% +8
Week 13 @ Colts W 31–17 24% +76
Week 14 @ Raiders W 42–21 88% +12
Week 15 vs Texans L 21–24 30% −30
Week 16 vs Saints L 28–38 28% −28
Week 17 @ Texans W 35–14 87% +13
Wild Card @ Patriots W 20–13 39% +61
Divisional round @ Ravens W 28–12 59% +41
AFC Championship @ Chiefs L 24–35 17% −17

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Titans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+16.0+1.00
Judgment calls+10.3+0.65
Fumble bounces+6.3+0.39
3rd & 4th downs+4.0+0.25
Rest+0.2+0.01
Kicks−17.7−1.11