2019 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2019: game by game
The Titans went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 2.3: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Browns | W 43–13 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | L 17–19 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | L 7–20 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 4 | @ Falcons | W 24–10 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | L 7–14 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 6 | @ Broncos | L 0–16 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 7 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 20% | +80 |
| Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–23 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | L 20–30 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 10 | vs Chiefs | W 35–32 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 12 | vs Jaguars | W 42–20 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 13 | @ Colts | W 31–17 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 42–21 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 15 | vs Texans | L 21–24 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 16 | vs Saints | L 28–38 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 35–14 | 88% | +12 |
| Wild Card | @ Patriots | W 20–13 | 41% | +59 |
| Divisional round | @ Ravens | W 28–12 | 58% | +42 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 24–35 | 16% | −16 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.32 | −18.3 |
| Injuries | +0.28 | +12.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.27 | +8.1 |
| Judgment calls | +0.19 | +5.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.23 | +3.8 |