luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Titans, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 24–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 24
Tennessee Titans 21

December 15, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +28 Texans lucky · −28 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 HOU 33 TEN 7
  2. 2 HOU 47 TEN 28
  3. 3 HOU 41 TEN 27
  4. 4 HOU 27 TEN 16
  5. 5 HOU 35 TEN 28
  6. 6 HOU 26 TEN 21
  7. 7 HOU 28 TEN 26
  8. 8 HOU 17 TEN 20
  9. 9 HOU 27 TEN 36
  10. 10 HOU 14 TEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 72% of them, Titans 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+24.9%
Texans by 9–1620.3%
Texans by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation3.5%
Titans by 1–815.7%
Titans by 9–167.8%
Titans by 17+4.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Titans by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 45 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 27 yards, Titans 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:51 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 4:06 False Start on the Texans (Will Fuller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 1:45 False Start on the Titans (Corey Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 4:47 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards +4% HOU +1.8 pts
Q3 12:47 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 14:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 7 yards +5% TEN +1.0 pts
Q4 11:06 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 3:31 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 0:28 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% HOU HOU: Turnover
2 Q1 7:08 R. Succop had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +8% HOU TEN: Punt
3 Q1 0:51 The Titans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% TEN TEN: Turnover
4 Q3 6:28 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% HOU TEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:40 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:43 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% HOU HOU: Turnover
7 Q4 14:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 7 yardsJudgment calls +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:06 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yardsJudgment calls +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Phillip Gaines (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Keke Coutee (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 30% · Titans 70%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
3.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 72% · Titans 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Texans · Titans

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