2026 NFL season · after Week 3
Dropped passes, 2026: every team’s drops and drop luck
The Packers dropped the most passes in 2026 so far: 7 of 78 catchable balls (9.0%), 3.1 more than their receivers usually drop. The Texans dropped the fewest, 1. The most by one player: A. Jeanty (Raiders), 3.
FTN’s charting marks every catchable ball and every drop. Each drop is measured against the receiver’s own record, so a sure-handed receiver’s drop counts as bad luck and a shaky one’s as less so. Drops above expected don’t carry over from one season to the next (−0.09). Luck in wins weighs each drop by the moment, own receivers’ and opponents’. Regular season only. Methodology
Drops by team, 2026
| # | Team | Drops | Catchable balls | Drop rate | Above expected | Drop luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Packers | 7 | 78 | 9.0% | +3.1 | −0.09 |
| 2 |  Rams | 6 | 74 | 8.1% | +2.2 | −0.26 |
| 3 |  Raiders | 5 | 69 | 7.2% | +1.6 | −0.11 |
| 4 |  Buccaneers | 5 | 70 | 7.1% | +1.6 | −0.03 |
| 5 |  Commanders | 5 | 71 | 7.0% | +1.8 | −0.09 |
| 6 |  Steelers | 5 | 73 | 6.8% | +1.7 | −0.32 |
| 7 |  Jets | 5 | 88 | 5.7% | +0.5 | +0.12 |
| 8 |  Chargers | 4 | 59 | 6.8% | +1.2 | +0.07 |
| 9 |  Jaguars | 4 | 62 | 6.5% | +0.8 | −0.12 |
| 10 |  Bears | 4 | 70 | 5.7% | +0.5 | −0.08 |
| 11 |  Colts | 4 | 72 | 5.6% | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| 12 |  Seahawks | 4 | 77 | 5.2% | +0.6 | −0.04 |
| 13 |  Cowboys | 4 | 82 | 4.9% | −0.1 | −0.05 |
| 14 |  Cardinals | 4 | 90 | 4.4% | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| 15 |  Saints | 4 | 101 | 4.0% | −0.8 | +0.04 |
| 16 |  Bills | 3 | 62 | 4.8% | +0.1 | +0.07 |
| 17 |  Broncos | 3 | 62 | 4.8% | −0.1 | +0.40 |
| 18 |  Browns | 3 | 64 | 4.7% | −0.1 | +0.06 |
| 19 |  49ers | 3 | 66 | 4.5% | −0.1 | −0.05 |
| 20 |  Chiefs | 3 | 72 | 4.2% | −0.7 | −0.03 |
| 21 |  Bengals | 3 | 81 | 3.7% | −0.9 | +0.08 |
| 22 |  Lions | 3 | 84 | 3.6% | −1.2 | −0.05 |
| 23 |  Giants | 2 | 53 | 3.8% | −0.7 | +0.06 |
| 24 |  Dolphins | 2 | 53 | 3.8% | −0.5 | +0.03 |
| 25 |  Ravens | 2 | 57 | 3.5% | −1.0 | −0.01 |
| 26 |  Patriots | 2 | 60 | 3.3% | −1.0 | +0.05 |
| 27 |  Panthers | 2 | 74 | 2.7% | −1.4 | −0.14 |
| 28 |  Vikings | 1 | 44 | 2.3% | −1.0 | +0.15 |
| 29 |  Falcons | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | −1.3 | +0.20 |
| 30 |  Eagles | 1 | 59 | 1.7% | −1.8 | −0.01 |
| 31 |  Titans | 1 | 60 | 1.7% | −1.9 | +0.10 |
| 32 |  Texans | 1 | 75 | 1.3% | −2.4 | +0.03 |
Drops and catchable balls: FTN Data via nflverse (interceptions excluded). Above expected: drops minus the sum of each receiver’s expected drop rate. League rate 2026: 4.8%.
Most drops by a player, 2026
| # | Player | Team | Drops |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Jeanty | Raiders | 3 |
| 2 | D. Metcalf | Steelers | 3 |
| 3 | G. Pickens | Cowboys | 3 |
| 4 | M. Golden | Packers | 3 |
| 5 | T. Warren | Colts | 3 |
| 6 | A. Mitchell | Jets | 2 |
| 7 | Bri.Thomas | Jaguars | 2 |
| 8 | C. Otton | Buccaneers | 2 |
| 9 | C. Watson | Packers | 2 |
| 10 | D. Meyers | Bengals | 2 |
| 11 | D. Samuel | 49ers | 2 |
| 12 | H. Fannin | Browns | 2 |
| 13 | J. Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 2 |
| 14 | J. Waddle | Broncos | 2 |
| 15 | J. Williams | Lions | 2 |
Questions
Which NFL team dropped the most passes in 2026?
The Packers: 7 drops on 78 catchable balls so far, 9.0%. The league rate is 4.8%.
Are drops luck?
Mostly. Some receivers drop more than others, so each drop is measured against that receiver’s own rate. What’s left doesn’t carry over: a team’s drops above expected correlate from one season to the next at −0.09 (96 team-seasons). A drop on third down costs the most, since it costs the first down.
Who gained the most from drops in 2026?
The Broncos, +0.40 wins, counting their own receivers’ drops and their opponents’, each weighted by the moment it came.
Other seasons: 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022
2026 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck