2022 NFL season · final
Dropped passes, 2022: every team’s drops and drop luck
The Jaguars dropped the most passes in 2022: 32 of 461 catchable balls (6.9%), 8.4 more than their receivers usually drop. The Seahawks dropped the fewest, 10. The most by one player: T. Kelce (Chiefs), 9.
FTN’s charting marks every catchable ball and every drop. Each drop is measured against the receiver’s own record, so a sure-handed receiver’s drop counts as bad luck and a shaky one’s as less so. Drops above expected don’t carry over from one season to the next (−0.09). Luck in wins weighs each drop by the moment, own receivers’ and opponents’. Regular season only. Methodology
Drops by team, 2022
| # | Team | Drops | Catchable balls | Drop rate | Above expected | Drop luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jaguars | 32 | 461 | 6.9% | +8.4 | −0.64 |
| 2 |  Chiefs | 30 | 501 | 6.0% | +4.8 | +0.35 |
| 3 |  Titans | 29 | 342 | 8.5% | +11.5 | −0.75 |
| 4 |  Packers | 29 | 434 | 6.7% | +7.4 | −0.69 |
| 5 |  Cardinals | 29 | 504 | 5.8% | +4.4 | −0.34 |
| 6 |  Jets | 27 | 427 | 6.3% | +6.0 | −0.54 |
| 7 |  Buccaneers | 27 | 568 | 4.8% | −0.5 | −0.02 |
| 8 |  Colts | 26 | 469 | 5.5% | +3.0 | −0.40 |
| 9 |  Giants | 25 | 406 | 6.2% | +4.9 | −0.05 |
| 10 |  Dolphins | 25 | 438 | 5.7% | +3.2 | −0.52 |
| 11 |  Vikings | 25 | 523 | 4.8% | −0.3 | +0.14 |
| 12 |  Patriots | 22 | 408 | 5.4% | +2.2 | −0.48 |
| 13 |  Lions | 22 | 448 | 4.9% | +0.1 | +0.26 |
| 14 |  Ravens | 21 | 351 | 6.0% | +3.6 | −0.06 |
| 15 |  Bills | 20 | 414 | 4.8% | −0.4 | +0.03 |
| 16 |  Raiders | 20 | 420 | 4.8% | −0.3 | −0.31 |
| 17 |  49ers | 18 | 394 | 4.6% | −1.6 | +0.09 |
| 18 |  Chargers | 18 | 561 | 3.2% | −8.0 | +0.29 |
| 19 |  Panthers | 17 | 312 | 5.4% | +1.8 | −0.36 |
| 20 |  Rams | 17 | 384 | 4.4% | −2.0 | +0.38 |
| 21 |  Saints | 16 | 388 | 4.1% | −2.7 | −0.38 |
| 22 |  Commanders | 16 | 397 | 4.0% | −3.1 | +1.23 |
| 23 |  Browns | 16 | 398 | 4.0% | −3.0 | +0.23 |
| 24 |  Broncos | 16 | 401 | 4.0% | −3.5 | +0.39 |
| 25 |  Steelers | 16 | 428 | 3.7% | −4.2 | −0.19 |
| 26 |  Eagles | 15 | 406 | 3.7% | −4.7 | +0.25 |
| 27 |  Cowboys | 14 | 415 | 3.4% | −6.0 | +0.49 |
| 28 |  Bengals | 13 | 472 | 2.8% | −8.9 | +0.94 |
| 29 |  Bears | 12 | 267 | 4.5% | −1.0 | −0.38 |
| 30 |  Texans | 12 | 397 | 3.0% | −7.1 | +0.53 |
| 31 |  Falcons | 10 | 295 | 3.4% | −4.0 | +0.07 |
| 32 |  Seahawks | 10 | 440 | 2.3% | −10.9 | +0.43 |
Drops and catchable balls: FTN Data via nflverse (interceptions excluded). Above expected: drops minus the sum of each receiver’s expected drop rate. League rate 2022: 4.8%.
Most drops by a player, 2022
Questions
Which NFL team dropped the most passes in 2022?
The Jaguars: 32 drops on 461 catchable balls, 6.9%. The league rate is 4.8%.
Are drops luck?
Mostly. Some receivers drop more than others, so each drop is measured against that receiver’s own rate. What’s left doesn’t carry over: a team’s drops above expected correlate from one season to the next at −0.09 (96 team-seasons). A drop on third down costs the most, since it costs the first down.
Who gained the most from drops in 2022?
The Commanders, +1.23 wins, counting their own receivers’ drops and their opponents’, each weighted by the moment it came.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023
2022 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck