luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2022: game by game

The Eagles went 14–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–1.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.9.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions W 38–35 88% +12
Week 2 vs Vikings W 24–7 99% +1
Week 3 @ Commanders W 24–8 93% +7
Week 4 vs Jaguars W 29–21 97% +3
Week 5 @ Cardinals W 20–17 35% +65
Week 6 vs Cowboys W 26–17 71% +29
Week 8 vs Steelers W 35–13 97% +3
Week 9 @ Texans W 29–17 77% +23
Week 10 vs Commanders L 21–32 54% −54
Week 11 @ Colts W 17–16 83% +17
Week 12 vs Packers W 40–33 59% +41
Week 13 vs Titans W 35–10 90% +10
Week 14 @ Giants W 48–22 93% +7
Week 15 @ Bears W 25–20 89% +11
Week 16 @ Cowboys L 34–40 34% −34
Week 17 vs Saints L 10–20 11% −11
Week 18 vs Giants W 22–16 86% +14
Divisional round vs Giants W 38–7 85% +15
NFC Championship vs 49ers W 31–7 91% +9
Super Bowl vs Chiefs L 35–38 18% −18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+21.9+1.29
Drops+19.5+1.15
3rd & 4th downs+9.7+0.57
Kicks+2.4+0.14
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.09
Rest−0.4−0.02
Judgment calls−15.8−0.93