luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2022: game by game

The Eagles went 14–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–1.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.0.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions W 38–35 93% +7
Week 2 vs Vikings W 24–7 98% +2
Week 3 @ Commanders W 24–8 97% +3
Week 4 vs Jaguars W 29–21 97% +3
Week 5 @ Cardinals W 20–17 41% +59
Week 6 vs Cowboys W 26–17 69% +31
Week 8 vs Steelers W 35–13 99% +1
Week 9 @ Texans W 29–17 89% +11
Week 10 vs Commanders L 21–32 51% −51
Week 11 @ Colts W 17–16 75% +25
Week 12 vs Packers W 40–33 66% +34
Week 13 vs Titans W 35–10 96% +4
Week 14 @ Giants W 48–22 97% +3
Week 15 @ Bears W 25–20 84% +16
Week 16 @ Cowboys L 34–40 43% −43
Week 17 vs Saints L 10–20 9% −9
Week 18 vs Giants W 22–16 86% +14
Divisional round vs Giants W 38–7 90% +10
NFC Championship vs 49ers W 31–7 91% +9
Super Bowl vs Chiefs L 35–38 17% −17

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.39+5.4
Injuries+0.33+16.3
Drops+0.25+22.4
Kicks+0.15+2.3
Rest−0.02−0.4
Judgment calls−0.03−8.0
Fumble bounces−0.26+2.0