2022 season · final
Philadelphia Eagles, 2022: game by game
The Eagles went 14–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–1.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.9.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Lions | W 38–35 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 24–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Commanders | W 24–8 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | W 29–21 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Cardinals | W 20–17 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 6 | vs Cowboys | W 26–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 8 | vs Steelers | W 35–13 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | @ Texans | W 29–17 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 10 | vs Commanders | L 21–32 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 11 | @ Colts | W 17–16 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 12 | vs Packers | W 40–33 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 13 | vs Titans | W 35–10 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | @ Giants | W 48–22 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 15 | @ Bears | W 25–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | @ Cowboys | L 34–40 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 17 | vs Saints | L 10–20 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 18 | vs Giants | W 22–16 | 86% | +14 |
| Divisional round | vs Giants | W 38–7 | 85% | +15 |
| NFC Championship | vs 49ers | W 31–7 | 91% | +9 |
| Super Bowl | vs Chiefs | L 35–38 | 18% | −18 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +21.9 | +1.29 |
| Drops | +19.5 | +1.15 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +9.7 | +0.57 |
| Kicks | +2.4 | +0.14 |
| Fumble bounces | +1.6 | +0.09 |
| Rest | −0.4 | −0.02 |
| Judgment calls | −15.8 | −0.93 |