luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 26–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 17
Philadelphia Eagles 26

October 16, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +31 Eagles lucky · −31 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 23 PHI 7
  2. 2 DAL 27 PHI 20
  3. 3 DAL 23 PHI 20
  4. 4 DAL 14 PHI 16
  5. 5 DAL 14 PHI 19
  6. 6 DAL 19 PHI 27
  7. 7 DAL 23 PHI 34
  8. 8 DAL 3 PHI 17
  9. 9 DAL 0 PHI 18
  10. 10 DAL 14 PHI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 31% of them, Eagles 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.0%
Cowboys by 9–168.7%
Cowboys by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.7%
Eagles by 1–825.5%
Eagles by 9–1622.1%
Eagles by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 9, without the luck Cowboys by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Maher, 59 yds missed · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 72 yards, Eagles 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% PHI +1.9 pts
Q2 7:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 9 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 2:21 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 8:19 Offside on Free Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.5 pts
Q3 8:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.5 pts
Q3 6:59 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 7 yards +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 0:20 Illegal Motion on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +3% DAL +0.5 pts
Q4 7:06 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 1 yard 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 4:24 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q4 1:04 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q4 0:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 15 yards 0% PHI +1.8 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:13 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% PHI DAL: Punt
2 Q1 7:44 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% PHI DAL: Punt
3 Q1 3:28 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 2167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:55 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 8:15 The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1269 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% PHI PHI: Punt
7 Q4 12:33 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:30 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (DAL TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nahshon Wright (DAL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 38% · Eagles 62%

Final margin
Eagles by 9
Luck in points
12.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 31% · Eagles 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Cowboys · Eagles

More from Week 6 2022