luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 26–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.8 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:15 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 17
Philadelphia Eagles 26

October 16, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +29 Eagles lucky · −29 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 32 PHI 17
  2. 2 DAL 17 PHI 9
  3. 3 DAL 26 PHI 23
  4. 4 DAL 20 PHI 22
  5. 5 DAL 34 PHI 38
  6. 6 DAL 27 PHI 34
  7. 7 DAL 27 PHI 36
  8. 8 DAL 17 PHI 30
  9. 9 DAL 16 PHI 33
  10. 10 DAL 18 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 29% of them, Eagles 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+3.5%
Cowboys by 9–168.5%
Cowboys by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.9%
Eagles by 1–824.6%
Eagles by 9–1622.1%
Eagles by 17+22.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Maher, 59 yds missed · 53% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:11 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +4% DAL PHI: Punt
2 Q1 4:57 D. Goedert dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 29 catchable balls before this +5% DAL PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:28 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 2167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% PHI DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 8:15 The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1269 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% PHI PHI: Punt
7 Q4 12:33 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:30 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (DAL TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nahshon Wright (DAL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 43% · Eagles 57%

Final margin
Eagles by 9
Luck in points
15.0 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 29% · Eagles 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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