luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Ravens at Giants, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Ravens 24–20, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 7.4 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 60 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
New York Giants 24

October 16, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +67 Giants very lucky · −67 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 BAL 38 NYG 14
  2. 2 BAL 34 NYG 17
  3. 3 BAL 15 NYG 3
  4. 4 BAL 31 NYG 21
  5. 5 BAL 20 NYG 13
  6. 6 BAL 9 NYG 6
  7. 7 BAL 27 NYG 25
  8. 8 BAL 20 NYG 23
  9. 9 BAL 10 NYG 17
  10. 10 BAL 7 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 67% of them, Giants 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+18.6%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Giants by 1–819.5%
Giants by 9–169.0%
Giants by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 56 yds missed · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:19 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% NYG BAL: Punt
2 Q2 3:36 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 918 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 2:42 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% BAL NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 3:05 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +35% NYG BAL: Turnover
6 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2290 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +60% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:43 D. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +22% NYG BAL: Turnover
8 Q4 1:40 The Ravens fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 78% · Giants 22%

Final margin
Giants by 4
Luck in points
10.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 67% · Giants 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Ravens · Giants

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