luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Ravens at Giants, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Ravens 24–20, but the replays lean toward the Ravens: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 61 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
New York Giants 24

October 16, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +69 Giants very lucky · −69 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 BAL 41 NYG 17
  2. 2 BAL 34 NYG 17
  3. 3 BAL 20 NYG 7
  4. 4 BAL 30 NYG 20
  5. 5 BAL 23 NYG 16
  6. 6 BAL 24 NYG 20
  7. 7 BAL 21 NYG 19
  8. 8 BAL 24 NYG 27
  9. 9 BAL 14 NYG 23
  10. 10 BAL 3 NYG 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 69% of them, Giants 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+21.6%
Ravens by 9–1620.3%
Ravens by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation4.4%
Giants by 1–816.5%
Giants by 9–168.2%
Giants by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 4, without the luck Ravens by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 56 yds missed · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 10 for 74 yards, Giants 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:14 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 12:03 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 7:31 False Start on the Giants (Richie James), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 1:13 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 7:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards +4% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 4:43 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 3:28 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Tylan Wallace), 10 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (A.J. Klein), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.4 pts
Q3 13:09 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% BAL +0.4 pts
Q3 5:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yards +8% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 3:09 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play +61% NYG +5.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:31 J. Tucker missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 39 of 45 from 45+ before +8% NYG BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:20 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:36 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 918 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 2:42 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% BAL NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2290 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +61% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:43 D. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +14% NYG BAL: Turnover
8 Q4 1:40 The Ravens fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 58% · Giants 42%

Final margin
Giants by 4
Luck in points
5.3 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 69% · Giants 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Ravens · Giants

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