luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Jaguars at Colts, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 34–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Colts.

The Colts won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:23 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 13, worth 22 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Indianapolis Colts 34

October 16, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +86 Colts very lucky · −86 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 37 IND 9
  2. 2 JAX 41 IND 20
  3. 3 JAX 34 IND 17
  4. 4 JAX 34 IND 20
  5. 5 JAX 22 IND 10
  6. 6 JAX 16 IND 6
  7. 7 JAX 17 IND 10
  8. 8 JAX 27 IND 23
  9. 9 JAX 29 IND 28
  10. 10 JAX 27 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Colts won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

37 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.06 better by 0.14
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.14 worse by 0.07
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.09 better by 0.12
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.09 worse by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 86% of them, Colts 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+35.5%
Jaguars by 9–1623.4%
Jaguars by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Colts by 1–89.6%
Colts by 9–163.8%
Colts by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 44 yards, Colts 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:28 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 13:16 Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 8:52 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Matt Ryan), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 3:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 9 yards +6% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 11:55 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 8:00 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars, 15 yards +6% IND +2.6 pts
Q4 13:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards +4% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 11:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Stephon Gilmore), 7 yards +7% JAX +1.9 pts
Q4 4:39 Defensive Holding on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards +8% JAX +0.9 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:47 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q3 1:14 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +15% IND JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 0:11 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:57 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:38 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +9% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:12 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +19% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:23 The Colts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +22% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marvin Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 82% · Colts 18%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
11.9 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 86% · Colts 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Jaguars · Colts

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