luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 13, 2022

Commanders at Bears, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Bears 12–7, but the replays lean toward the Bears: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:34 left): I. Smith-Marsette dropped a catchable pass, worth 16 points of win probability to the Commanders. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Bears were stopped on 4th & 4.

Final

Washington Commanders 12
Chicago Bears 7

October 13, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Commanders −1

Luck index +62 Commanders very lucky · −62 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Bears win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 26 CHI 6
  2. 2 WAS 27 CHI 16
  3. 3 WAS 23 CHI 17
  4. 4 WAS 17 CHI 14
  5. 5 WAS 14 CHI 16
  6. 6 WAS 20 CHI 24
  7. 7 WAS 23 CHI 30
  8. 8 WAS 12 CHI 23
  9. 9 WAS 6 CHI 21
  10. 10 WAS 3 CHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 38% of them, Bears 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+5.3%
Commanders by 9–1610.4%
Commanders by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.2%
Bears by 1–826.2%
Bears by 9–1618.8%
Bears by 17+16.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Bears: the final margin was Commanders by 5, without the luck Commanders by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 7 for 36 yards, Bears 4 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:09 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q1 8:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.7 pts
Q1 2:18 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 3 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CHI +1.4 pts
Q2 13:10 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.4 pts
Q2 2:34 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +4% CHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 17 yards +7% WAS +1.6 pts
Q2 1:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 15 yards +7% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Commanders (Cam Sims), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.5 pts
Q4 8:18 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 6:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% CHI +1.9 pts
Q4 2:34 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.3 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:25 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% WAS CHI: Punt
2 Q2 9:50 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q4 8:18 The Bears fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% WAS CHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 6:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 691 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 2:34 The game turned hereI. Smith-Marsette dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% WAS CHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:54 J. Slye missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 28 of 39 from 45+ before +18% CHI WAS: End of game
7 Q4 1:49 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:35 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +37% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 78% · Bears 22%

Final margin
Commanders by 5
Luck in points
0.8 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 38% · Bears 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Commanders · Bears

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