luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 13, 2022

Commanders at Bears, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Bears 12–7, but the Bears played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Bears were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 36 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 12
Chicago Bears 7

October 13, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Commanders −1

Luck index +62 Commanders very lucky · −62 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Bears win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 32 CHI 13
  2. 2 WAS 29 CHI 17
  3. 3 WAS 30 CHI 23
  4. 4 WAS 21 CHI 19
  5. 5 WAS 27 CHI 30
  6. 6 WAS 10 CHI 15
  7. 7 WAS 14 CHI 23
  8. 8 WAS 0 CHI 13
  9. 9 WAS 6 CHI 24
  10. 10 WAS 6 CHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 38% of them, Bears 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+6.2%
Commanders by 9–1611.8%
Commanders by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Bears by 1–827.7%
Bears by 9–1617.1%
Bears by 17+15.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:25 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% WAS CHI: Punt
2 Q4 11:21 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% WAS CHI: Punt
3 Q4 8:18 The Bears fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% WAS CHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 6:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 691 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 2:34 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedI. Smith-Marsette dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% WAS CHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:54 J. Slye missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 28 of 39 from 45+ before +18% CHI WAS: End of game
7 Q4 1:49 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:35 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +36% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 92% · Bears 8%

Final margin
Commanders by 5
Luck in points
5.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 38% · Bears 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Commanders · Bears

More from Week 6 2022