luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2022: game by game

The Commanders went 8–8–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.0 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3–1.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Jaguars W 28–22 46% +54
Week 2 @ Lions L 27–36 45% −45
Week 3 vs Eagles L 8–24 7% −7
Week 4 @ Cowboys L 10–25 16% −16
Week 5 vs Titans L 17–21 63% −63
Week 6 @ Bears W 12–7 38% +62
Week 7 vs Packers W 23–21 15% +85
Week 8 @ Colts W 17–16 74% +26
Week 9 vs Vikings L 17–20 60% −60
Week 10 @ Eagles W 32–21 46% +54
Week 11 @ Texans W 23–10 82% +18
Week 12 vs Falcons W 19–13 33% +67
Week 13 @ Giants T 20–20 9% +41
Week 15 vs Giants L 12–20 53% −53
Week 16 @ 49ers L 20–37 9% −9
Week 17 vs Browns L 10–24 10% −10
Week 18 vs Cowboys W 26–6 94% +6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+24.4+1.44
Fumble bounces+14.2+0.83
Injuries+12.4+0.73
3rd & 4th downs+4.3+0.25
Rest−0.2−0.01
Kicks−9.5−0.56
Judgment calls−14.4−0.85