2022 season · final
Washington Commanders, 2022: game by game
The Commanders went 8–8–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck added 2.0: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3–1.
Every game
How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jaguars | W 28–22 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 2 | @ Lions | L 27–36 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 3 | vs Eagles | L 8–24 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 4 | @ Cowboys | L 10–25 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 5 | vs Titans | L 17–21 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 6 | @ Bears | W 12–7 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 7 | vs Packers | W 23–21 | 8% | +92 |
| Week 8 | @ Colts | W 17–16 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 9 | vs Vikings | L 17–20 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 10 | @ Eagles | W 32–21 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 11 | @ Texans | W 23–10 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 12 | vs Falcons | W 19–13 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 13 | @ Giants | T 20–20 | 9% | +41 |
| Week 15 | vs Giants | L 12–20 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 16 | @ 49ers | L 20–37 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 17 | vs Browns | L 10–24 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 18 | vs Cowboys | W 26–6 | 94% | +6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +1.23 | +32.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.45 | +18.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.33 | +2.9 |
| Injuries | +0.25 | +9.2 |
| Kicks | −0.32 | −9.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.43 | −7.0 |