Week 10 2022 · November 14, 2022
Commanders at Eagles, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Eagles 32–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:17 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 32 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Commanders lucky · −51 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Eagles win 5.
- 1 WAS 27 PHI 6
- 2 WAS 24 PHI 10
- 3 WAS 38 PHI 30
- 4 WAS 30 PHI 26
- 5 WAS 22 PHI 20
- 6 WAS 21 PHI 23
- 7 WAS 13 PHI 18
- 8 WAS 14 PHI 23
- 9 WAS 24 PHI 38
- 10 WAS 10 PHI 31
Your call
Did the Commanders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 49% of them, Eagles 51%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 9.4% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Level after regulation | 6.7% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 10.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 44 yds made · 82% expected
- J. Slye, 58 yds made · 61% expected
- J. Slye, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Slye, 55 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Commanders 5 for 58 yards, Eagles 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 8 yards | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q1 13:32 | Roughing the Kicker on the Eagles, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% WAS +2.7 pts |
| Q1 2:03 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards | +4% WAS +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 30 yards | +5% PHI +2.6 pts |
| Q2 13:41 | Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards | 0% WAS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:17 | Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards | +8% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:24 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +7% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 4:17 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +18% PHI +3.3 pts |
| Q4 2:18 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Eagles, 5 yards | +1% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 15 yards | +7% WAS +1.8 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:20 | The Commanders fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PHI | WAS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:49 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:32 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3142 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 | +8% WAS | WAS: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 12:33 | The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +13% PHI | WAS: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:14 | The Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% WAS | PHI: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 6:24 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:17 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +18% PHI | PHI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Cole Turner (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 31% · Eagles 69%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 11
- Luck in points
- 13.9 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 49% · Eagles 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · 
Commanders · 
Eagles
More from Week 10 2022
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 25–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers TB 21–16 · replay 41% for the winner
- Browns at Dolphins MIA 39–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Broncos at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 31–30 · replay 57% for the winner
- Texans at Giants NYG 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Bills MIN 33–30 · replay 14% for the winner
- Saints at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 25–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cowboys at Packers GB 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Chargers at 49ers SF 22–16 · replay 92% for the winner