luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Cowboys at Packers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cowboys 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 8:09 left): Offensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

Dallas Cowboys 28
Green Bay Packers 31

November 13, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +44 Packers lucky · −44 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 34 GB 14
  2. 2 DAL 20 GB 7
  3. 3 DAL 42 GB 35
  4. 4 DAL 27 GB 24
  5. 5 DAL 21 GB 23
  6. 6 DAL 13 GB 19
  7. 7 DAL 24 GB 34
  8. 8 DAL 14 GB 27
  9. 9 DAL 17 GB 36
  10. 10 DAL 10 GB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 44% of them, Packers 56%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+9.6%
Cowboys by 9–1612.8%
Cowboys by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Packers by 1–824.3%
Packers by 9–1615.3%
Packers by 17+15.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Packers by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 54 yds missed · 61% expected
  • M. Crosby, 28 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 83 yards, Packers 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards +3% GB +1.4 pts
Q1 3:38 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q1 2:41 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 13:17 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Johnathan Abram), 10 yards +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 4:17 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DAL +1.4 pts
Q3 10:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 5 yards +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 10:46 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 5:45 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 14 yards +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q3 4:34 Intentional Grounding on the Cowboys (Dak Prescott), 11 yards +4% GB +1.0 pts
OT 8:09 Offensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% GB +1.6 pts
OT 7:29 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +7% GB +0.9 pts
OT 3:59 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 8 yards +8% GB +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:33 M. Crosby missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 17 of 22 from 45+ before +9% DAL GB: Punt
2 Q3 8:42 The Packers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL GB: Punt
3 Q4 4:56 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:56 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% GB DAL: Punt
5 OT 8:09 Offensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% GB GB: Field goal
6 OT 6:25 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% GB DAL: Turnover on downs
7 OT 4:47 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% GB GB: Field goal
8 OT 3:59 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2238 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Barr (DAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 9% · Packers 91%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
7.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 44% · Packers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Cowboys · Packers

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