luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Cardinals at Rams, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Rams 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.0 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:06 left): the Cardinals converted 4th & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Los Angeles Rams 17

November 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +23 Cardinals about even · −23 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Rams win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 26 LA 0
  2. 2 ARI 26 LA 7
  3. 3 ARI 30 LA 16
  4. 4 ARI 26 LA 14
  5. 5 ARI 22 LA 13
  6. 6 ARI 31 LA 24
  7. 7 ARI 7 LA 3
  8. 8 ARI 16 LA 14
  9. 9 ARI 13 LA 17
  10. 10 ARI 6 LA 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 77% of them, Rams 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+27.4%
Cardinals by 9–1622.7%
Cardinals by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation2.7%
Rams by 1–812.3%
Rams by 9–166.6%
Rams by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 7.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Vizcaino, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Vizcaino, 46 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:16 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q1 9:45 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q1 8:28 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q1 5:17 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q1 4:06 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q2 1:39 The Rams fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI LA: End of half
7 Q3 4:29 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 2366 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +7% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:45 The Cardinals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out, replaced by j.wolford · 7.4 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Grant Haley (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Greg Gaines (LA NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 2.4 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 96% · Rams 4%

Final margin
Cardinals by 10
Luck in points
2.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 77% · Rams 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Cardinals · Rams

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