Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022
Cardinals at Rams, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Rams 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Rams: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 27 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Cardinals about even · −12 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Rams win 1.
- 1 ARI 29 LA 0
- 2 ARI 23 LA 0
- 3 ARI 24 LA 6
- 4 ARI 23 LA 7
- 5 ARI 13 LA 0
- 6 ARI 20 LA 10
- 7 ARI 20 LA 13
- 8 ARI 13 LA 9
- 9 ARI 15 LA 13
- 10 ARI 6 LA 15
Your call
Did the Cardinals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Rams
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Rams: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.01 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.13 | better by 0.26 |
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.11 | worse by 0.24 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.05 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 88% of them, Rams 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 44.9% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Rams by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 36 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Vizcaino, 36 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Vizcaino, 46 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 67 yards, Rams 5 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:04 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:45 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:43 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trayvon Mullen), 10 yards | +3% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:13 | False Start on the Rams (Brycen Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Robert Rochell), 6 yards | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 3 yards | +1% ARI +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:08 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LA +2.2 pts |
| Q3 10:58 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:57 | Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Colt McCoy), 12 yards | +1% LA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:29 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:24 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 10 yards | +2% ARI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:09 | Encroachment on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.5 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:16 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +5% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:45 | The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 8:28 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:17 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:06 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 2:58 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 1:39 | The Rams fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | LA: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 4:29 | The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 2366 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 | +7% LA | LA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out, replaced by j.wolford · 7.4 pts
- Alaric Jackson (LA T), out · 0.6 pts
- Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Grant Haley (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Greg Gaines (LA NT), out · 0.2 pts
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 2.4 pts
- Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 86% · Rams 14%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 4.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 88% · Rams 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · 
Cardinals · 
Rams
More from Week 10 2022
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 25–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers TB 21–16 · replay 41% for the winner
- Browns at Dolphins MIA 39–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Broncos at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 31–30 · replay 57% for the winner
- Texans at Giants NYG 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Bills MIN 33–30 · replay 14% for the winner
- Saints at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 25–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cowboys at Packers GB 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Chargers at 49ers SF 22–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles WAS 32–21 · replay 49% for the winner