NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Rams have won 68 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 71.8. Luck cost them 3.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2024 (+1.6 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−2.3).
2026: 5–4 so far, replay wins 7.0 (−2.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5–4 | 7.0 | −2.0 | 2–3 | −0.64 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 14.3 | −2.3 | 4–5 | +0.37 | 2–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 8–5 | +0.78 | 1–1 |
| 2023 | 10–7 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 6–4 | +0.68 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 5–12 | 6.2 | −1.2 | 3–4 | −0.17 | – |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 11.7 | +0.3 | 4–2 | +0.74 | 4–0 |
| 2020 | 10–6 | 11.2 | −1.2 | 4–4 | +0.95 | 1–1 |
| 2019 | 9–7 | 10.0 | −1.0 | 3–3 | −0.46 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −2.3 | −0.38 | −0.91 | −0.06 | +0.18 | +0.40 | −0.33 |
| 2024 | +1.6 | +0.35 | −0.16 | +0.35 | +0.39 | −0.28 | −0.09 |
| 2023 | +0.1 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.09 | +0.34 | +0.18 | +0.19 |
| 2022 | −1.2 | −0.03 | +0.58 | +0.38 | −0.08 | −0.64 | −0.15 |
| 2021 | +0.3 | −0.01 | −0.31 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.38 | +0.10 |
| 2020 | −1.2 | −0.07 | −0.29 | 0.00 | +0.48 | +0.22 | +0.17 |
| 2019 | −1.0 | −0.07 | −0.57 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.13 | +0.02 |
| Since 2019 | −3.8 | +0.12 | −1.72 | +0.75 | +1.45 | +0.14 | −0.10 |
Are the Rams lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Rams have won 68 regular-season games from play worth 71.8: −3.8 wins of luck, the 9th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Rams had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from kicks (−1.7 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (−0.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 32–27 since 2019, where the replays give them 35.4 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Rams’ luckiest season?
2024: 10–7 from play worth 8.4 wins, +1.6 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 12–5 from play worth 14.3 (−2.3).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Rams’ luckiest wins
Wins the Rams take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 17 | vs Cardinals | W 13–9 | 19% | +81 |
| 2024 Week 3 | vs 49ers | W 27–24 | 27% | +73 |
| 2021 Week 2 | @ Colts | W 27–24 | 31% | +69 |
| 2022 Week 14 | vs Raiders | W 17–16 | 31% | +69 |
| 2025 Divisional round | @ Bears | W 20–17 | 34% | +66 |
The Rams’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Rams would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 8 | @ Dolphins | L 17–28 | 95% | −95 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Broncos | L 26–30 | 93% | −93 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Eagles | L 26–33 | 86% | −86 |
| 2025 Week 16 | @ Seahawks | L 37–38 | 83% | −83 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Panthers | L 28–31 | 81% | −81 |
