2021 season · final
Los Angeles Rams, 2021: game by game
The Rams went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–2.
Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 2.4.
Every game
How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bears | W 34–14 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | W 27–24 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 3 | vs Buccaneers | W 34–24 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 4 | vs Cardinals | L 20–37 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | W 26–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | W 38–11 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | W 28–19 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | W 38–22 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | vs Titans | L 16–28 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 10 | @ 49ers | L 10–31 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 12 | @ Packers | L 28–36 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 37–7 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | @ Cardinals | W 30–23 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 15 | vs Seahawks | W 20–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | @ Vikings | W 30–23 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 17 | @ Ravens | W 20–19 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 18 | vs 49ers | L 24–27 | 25% | −25 |
| Wild Card | vs Cardinals | W 34–11 | 95% | +5 |
| Divisional round | @ Buccaneers | W 30–27 | 42% | +58 |
| NFC Championship | vs 49ers | W 20–17 | 60% | +41 |
| Super Bowl | vs Bengals | W 23–20 | 47% | +53 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.38 | +17.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.37 | +6.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | −3.1 |
| Rest | +0.05 | +1.8 |
| Kicks | −0.31 | +5.0 |