luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2021: game by game

The Rams went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–2.

Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 2.4.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bears W 34–14 91% +9
Week 2 @ Colts W 27–24 32% +68
Week 3 vs Buccaneers W 34–24 34% +66
Week 4 vs Cardinals L 20–37 29% −29
Week 5 @ Seahawks W 26–17 73% +27
Week 6 @ Giants W 38–11 97% +3
Week 7 vs Lions W 28–19 85% +15
Week 8 @ Texans W 38–22 98% +2
Week 9 vs Titans L 16–28 65% −65
Week 10 @ 49ers L 10–31 51% −51
Week 12 @ Packers L 28–36 76% −76
Week 13 vs Jaguars W 37–7 97% +3
Week 14 @ Cardinals W 30–23 70% +30
Week 15 vs Seahawks W 20–10 89% +11
Week 16 @ Vikings W 30–23 85% +15
Week 17 @ Ravens W 20–19 84% +16
Week 18 vs 49ers L 24–27 25% −25
Wild Card vs Cardinals W 34–11 95% +5
Divisional round @ Buccaneers W 30–27 43% +57
NFC Championship vs 49ers W 20–17 56% +44
Super Bowl @ Bengals W 23–20 49% +51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+23.5+1.38
Judgment calls+10.7+0.63
Kicks+5.3+0.31
Rest+1.8+0.10
Fumble bounces−3.1−0.19
3rd & 4th downs−4.4−0.26