2021 season · final
Los Angeles Rams, 2021: game by game
The Rams went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–2.
Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 2.4.
Every game
How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bears | W 34–14 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | W 27–24 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 3 | vs Buccaneers | W 34–24 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 4 | vs Cardinals | L 20–37 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | W 26–17 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | W 38–11 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | W 28–19 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | W 38–22 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | vs Titans | L 16–28 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 10 | @ 49ers | L 10–31 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 12 | @ Packers | L 28–36 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 37–7 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | @ Cardinals | W 30–23 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 15 | vs Seahawks | W 20–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | @ Vikings | W 30–23 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 17 | @ Ravens | W 20–19 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 18 | vs 49ers | L 24–27 | 25% | −25 |
| Wild Card | vs Cardinals | W 34–11 | 95% | +5 |
| Divisional round | @ Buccaneers | W 30–27 | 43% | +57 |
| NFC Championship | vs 49ers | W 20–17 | 56% | +44 |
| Super Bowl | @ Bengals | W 23–20 | 49% | +51 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +23.5 | +1.38 |
| Judgment calls | +10.7 | +0.63 |
| Kicks | +5.3 | +0.31 |
| Rest | +1.8 | +0.10 |
| Fumble bounces | −3.1 | −0.19 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −4.4 | −0.26 |