Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Rams, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Bears 34–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.7 points to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Rams were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:00 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 14 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Rams win 9.
- 1 CHI 17 LA 10
- 2 CHI 17 LA 19
- 3 CHI 17 LA 21
- 4 CHI 13 LA 20
- 5 CHI 7 LA 17
- 6 CHI 24 LA 38
- 7 CHI 7 LA 24
- 8 CHI 10 LA 29
- 9 CHI 10 LA 32
- 10 CHI 6 LA 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 9% of them, Rams 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| Rams by 17+ | 48.2% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Rams by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 15.5.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 53 yds made · 70% expected
- M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:26 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 753 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 | +4% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:00 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +14% LA | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 13:56 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 11:42 | M. Gay made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him | +5% LA | LA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:38 | The Bears converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 14:30 | The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 5:08 | The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:51 | The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% LA | LA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cam Akers (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI DB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 0% · Rams 100%
- Final margin
- Rams by 20
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 9% · Rams 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · 
Bears · 
Rams
More from Week 1 2021
- Cowboys at Buccaneers TB 31–29 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cardinals at Titans ARI 38–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 37–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Washington LAC 20–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Vikings at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jets at Panthers CAR 19–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons PHI 32–6 · replay 69% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills PIT 23–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Seahawks at Colts SEA 28–16 · replay 62% for the winner
- 49ers at Lions SF 41–33 · replay 57% for the winner
- Browns at Chiefs KC 33–29 · replay 70% for the winner
- Broncos at Giants DEN 27–13 · replay 73% for the winner
- Packers vs Saints NO 38–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Ravens at Raiders LV 33–27 · replay 72% for the winner