luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2021 · September 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Buccaneers, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 31–29, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:23 left): Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

September 9, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +25 Buccaneers about even · −25 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 DAL 41 TB 27
  2. 2 DAL 41 TB 37
  3. 3 DAL 30 TB 32
  4. 4 DAL 36 TB 41
  5. 5 DAL 20 TB 28
  6. 6 DAL 27 TB 40
  7. 7 DAL 10 TB 26
  8. 8 DAL 31 TB 51
  9. 9 DAL 16 TB 41
  10. 10 DAL 13 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 25% of them, Buccaneers 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.3%
Cowboys by 9–167.2%
Cowboys by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buccaneers by 1–822.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.4%
Buccaneers by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Buccaneers by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds missed · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 60 yds missed · 56% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 8 for 55 yards, Buccaneers 10 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:46 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Pat O'Connor), 10 yards +4% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 14:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 12:59 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 12:55 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 14 yards 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 8:16 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 12:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers, 16 yards +6% DAL +1.7 pts
Q3 8:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Bradlee Anae), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 8:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 8:10 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 3:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +31% TB +2.9 pts
Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +8% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 0:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% DAL +0.6 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:20 G. Zuerlein missed a 60-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 20 of 30 from 45+ before +9% TB DAL: Field goal
2 Q4 5:04 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DAL TB: Field goal
3 Q4 2:23 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +31% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q4 2:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +23% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:29 G. Zuerlein made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 20 of 31 from 45+ before +11% DAL DAL: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% DAL DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 R. Succop made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +9% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Whitehead (TB S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 28% · Buccaneers 72%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
0.8 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 25% · Buccaneers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Cowboys · Buccaneers

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