luckadjusted

Week 1 2021 · September 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Buccaneers, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 31–29 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:23 left): Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

September 9, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +26 Buccaneers lucky · −26 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 45 TB 27
  2. 2 DAL 34 TB 24
  3. 3 DAL 26 TB 23
  4. 4 DAL 23 TB 26
  5. 5 DAL 17 TB 23
  6. 6 DAL 10 TB 19
  7. 7 DAL 17 TB 30
  8. 8 DAL 30 TB 48
  9. 9 DAL 17 TB 40
  10. 10 DAL 6 TB 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 26% of them, Buccaneers 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.2%
Cowboys by 9–167.4%
Cowboys by 1–812.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Buccaneers by 1–823.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.2%
Buccaneers by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds missed · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 60 yds missed · 52% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:29 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:19 G. Zuerlein made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +20% TB DAL: Turnover
3 Q4 5:04 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL TB: Field goal
4 Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +31% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:29 G. Zuerlein made 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 20 of 31 from 45+ before +10% DAL DAL: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% DAL DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 R. Succop made 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +18% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Whitehead (TB S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 37% · Buccaneers 63%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
0.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 26% · Buccaneers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Cowboys · Buccaneers

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