2021 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2021: game by game
The Cowboys went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Buccaneers | L 29–31 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 20–17 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 3 | vs Eagles | W 41–21 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 4 | vs Panthers | W 36–28 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | W 44–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 6 | @ Patriots | W 35–29 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 8 | @ Vikings | W 20–16 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 9 | vs Broncos | L 16–30 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | W 43–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 11 | @ Chiefs | L 9–19 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 12 | vs Raiders | L 33–36 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 13 | @ Saints | W 27–17 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 14 | @ Washington | W 27–20 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 15 | @ Giants | W 21–6 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 16 | vs Washington | W 56–14 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 17 | vs Cardinals | L 22–25 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 18 | @ Eagles | W 51–26 | 94% | +6 |
| Wild Card | vs 49ers | L 17–23 | 13% | −13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +14.2 | +0.83 |
| Injuries | +8.6 | +0.51 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +4.7 | +0.28 |
| Rest | +0.2 | +0.01 |
| Kicks | −1.9 | −0.11 |
| Judgment calls | −20.9 | −1.23 |