luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Cowboys?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.39 points a game to the Cowboys since 2019, 9th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −0.16 points a game over 4 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Cowboys minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+0.70 11th1010 –
202517+1.08 5th8080 –
202417+3.12 1st6781 –
202317+0.64 9th7066 +4.29 (1)
202217+0.39 9th6454 +0.41 (2)
202117−1.23 25th8077 −5.75 (1)
202016−0.77 23rd5953 –
201916−0.64 22nd7268 –

Questions

Do refs favor the Cowboys?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.39 points a game to the Cowboys since 2019, 9th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −0.16 points a game over 4 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Dallas Cowboys, every season