2025 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2025: game by game
The Cowboys went 7–9–1 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3–1.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Eagles | L 20–24 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 2 | vs Giants | W 40–37 | 12% | +88 |
| Week 3 | @ Bears | L 14–31 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 4 | vs Packers | T 40–40 | 47% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Jets | W 37–22 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 6 | @ Panthers | L 27–30 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 7 | vs Commanders | W 44–22 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 24–44 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 9 | vs Cardinals | L 17–27 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 11 | @ Raiders | W 33–16 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | vs Eagles | W 24–21 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 13 | vs Chiefs | W 31–28 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 14 | @ Lions | L 30–44 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 15 | vs Vikings | L 26–34 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 16 | vs Chargers | L 17–34 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 17 | @ Commanders | W 30–23 | 18% | +82 |
| Week 18 | @ Giants | L 17–34 | 67% | −67 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.36 | +5.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.28 | +5.9 |
| Kicks | +0.11 | −10.1 |
| Injuries | +0.07 | +3.3 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.18 | −2.2 |
| Drops | −0.51 | −16.1 |