luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Chargers at Cowboys, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Cowboys 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.8 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:59 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 34
Dallas Cowboys 17

December 21, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +34 Chargers lucky · −34 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Cowboys win 3.

  1. 1 LAC 31 DAL 9
  2. 2 LAC 30 DAL 16
  3. 3 LAC 45 DAL 35
  4. 4 LAC 20 DAL 12
  5. 5 LAC 26 DAL 20
  6. 6 LAC 28 DAL 24
  7. 7 LAC 29 DAL 27
  8. 8 LAC 20 DAL 23
  9. 9 LAC 24 DAL 32
  10. 10 LAC 3 DAL 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 66% of them, Cowboys 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+15.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.9%
Chargers by 1–828.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cowboys by 1–820.0%
Cowboys by 9–169.3%
Cowboys by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:03 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% LAC DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:59 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +14% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:53 T. Harris dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +6% DAL LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:30 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:58 H. Luepke dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 27 catchable balls before this +6% LAC DAL: Punt
7 Q3 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 14:40 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (DAL DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • R.J. Mickens (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 97% · Cowboys 3%

Final margin
Chargers by 17
Luck in points
6.0 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 66% · Cowboys 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Chargers · Cowboys

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