luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Patriots at Ravens, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Ravens 28–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:02 left): the Patriots converted 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 28
Baltimore Ravens 24

December 21, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +50 Patriots lucky · −50 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 NE 37 BAL 14
  2. 2 NE 34 BAL 17
  3. 3 NE 25 BAL 13
  4. 4 NE 26 BAL 20
  5. 5 NE 30 BAL 27
  6. 6 NE 21 BAL 23
  7. 7 NE 7 BAL 12
  8. 8 NE 24 BAL 33
  9. 9 NE 10 BAL 24
  10. 10 NE 24 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 50% of them, Ravens 50%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+11.2%
Patriots by 9–1613.9%
Patriots by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation5.8%
Ravens by 1–822.7%
Ravens by 9–1614.9%
Ravens by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 4, without the luck Ravens by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • T. Loop, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Loop, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • A. Borregales, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 5 for 50 yards, Ravens 7 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:24 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +4% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +1.2 pts
Q3 14:14 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.4 pts
Q3 6:17 False Start on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 4 yards · pre-snap +5% NE +1.0 pts
Q3 5:37 Face Mask on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 15 yards +6% BAL +1.8 pts
Q3 4:35 Leverage on the Patriots (Cory Durden), 15 yards +6% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 4:35 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q3 3:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kayshon Boutte), 10 yards +7% BAL +1.9 pts
Q3 1:53 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q3 1:12 False Start on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 9:01 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 5:12 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.5 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:46 H. Henry dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 214 catchable balls before this +7% BAL NE: Turnover
2 Q2 12:47 The Patriots converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:52 R. Stevenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 178 catchable balls before this +8% BAL NE: Field goal
4 Q3 5:54 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kayshon Boutte), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1433 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:57 The Patriots converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% NE NE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:02 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +12% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:57 The Ravens fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Campbell (NE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Robert Spillane (NE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Milton Williams (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 45% · Ravens 55%

Final margin
Patriots by 4
Luck in points
4.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 50% · Ravens 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Patriots · Ravens

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