luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · December 18, 2025–December 22

Week 16 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 38–37 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 16 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 29–24 @ Lions 29% 79% Deserved
Titans 26–9 vs Chiefs 40% 59% Coin flip
Jaguars 34–20 @ Broncos 40% 56% Coin flip
Patriots 28–24 @ Ravens 40% 50% Coin flip
Panthers 23–20 vs Buccaneers 41% 70% Deserved
Chargers 34–17 @ Cowboys 46% 62% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 38–37 vs Rams 17% +83
2 Bears W 22–16 vs Packers 24% +76
3 Falcons W 26–19 @ Cardinals 45% +55
4 Vikings W 16–13 @ Giants 49% +51
5 Patriots W 28–24 @ Ravens 50% +50
6 Texans W 23–21 vs Raiders 53% +47
7 Jaguars W 34–20 @ Broncos 56% +44
8 Titans W 26–9 vs Chiefs 59% +41
9 Chargers W 34–17 @ Cowboys 62% +38
10 Panthers W 23–20 vs Buccaneers 70% +30
11 Eagles W 29–18 @ Commanders 76% +24
12 Steelers W 29–24 @ Lions 79% +21
13 Bengals W 45–21 @ Dolphins 92% +8
14 Saints W 29–6 vs Jets 95% +5
15 49ers W 48–27 @ Colts 96% +4
16 Bills W 23–20 @ Browns 97% +3
17 Browns L 20–23 vs Bills 3% −3
18 Colts L 27–48 vs 49ers 4% −4
19 Jets L 6–29 @ Saints 5% −5
20 Dolphins L 21–45 vs Bengals 8% −8
21 Lions L 24–29 vs Steelers 21% −21
22 Commanders L 18–29 vs Eagles 24% −24
23 Buccaneers L 20–23 @ Panthers 30% −30
24 Cowboys L 17–34 vs Chargers 38% −38
25 Chiefs L 9–26 @ Titans 41% −41
26 Broncos L 20–34 vs Jaguars 44% −44
27 Raiders L 21–23 @ Texans 47% −47
28 Ravens L 24–28 vs Patriots 50% −50
29 Giants L 13–16 vs Vikings 51% −51
30 Cardinals L 19–26 vs Falcons 55% −55
31 Packers L 16–22 @ Bears 76% −76
32 Rams L 37–38 @ Seahawks 83% −83