2025 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2025: game by game
The Vikings went 9–8 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck added 2.2: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | W 27–24 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 2 | vs Falcons | L 6–22 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 3 | vs Bengals | W 48–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | L 21–24 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 5 | vs Browns | W 21–17 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 7 | vs Eagles | L 22–28 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | L 10–37 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 9 | @ Lions | W 27–24 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 10 | vs Ravens | L 19–27 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 11 | vs Bears | L 17–19 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 12 | @ Packers | L 6–23 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 0–26 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 14 | vs Commanders | W 31–0 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 15 | @ Cowboys | W 34–26 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 16 | @ Giants | W 16–13 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 17 | vs Lions | W 23–10 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 18 | vs Packers | W 16–3 | 86% | +14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.73 | +33.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.18 | +18.8 |
| Drops | +0.06 | −2.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.05 | +3.3 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.16 | +1.8 |
| Injuries | −0.27 | −10.8 |