2025 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2025: game by game
The Vikings went 9–8 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | W 27–24 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | vs Falcons | L 6–22 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | vs Bengals | W 48–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | @ Steelers | L 21–24 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 5 | @ Browns | W 21–17 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 7 | vs Eagles | L 22–28 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | L 10–37 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 9 | @ Lions | W 27–24 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 10 | vs Ravens | L 19–27 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 11 | vs Bears | L 17–19 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 12 | @ Packers | L 6–23 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 0–26 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 14 | vs Commanders | W 31–0 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 15 | @ Cowboys | W 34–26 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 16 | @ Giants | W 16–13 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 17 | vs Lions | W 23–10 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 18 | vs Packers | W 16–3 | 87% | +13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +32.4 | +1.91 |
| Fumble bounces | +14.2 | +0.83 |
| Judgment calls | +6.3 | +0.37 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +1.1 | +0.07 |
| Rest | −0.8 | −0.05 |
| Drops | −3.7 | −0.22 |
| Injuries | −14.3 | −0.84 |