luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Vikings vs Browns, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Browns 21–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.2 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:34 left): Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 21
Cleveland Browns 17

October 5, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +32 Vikings lucky · −32 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Browns win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 27 CLE 0
  2. 2 MIN 23 CLE 3
  3. 3 MIN 23 CLE 7
  4. 4 MIN 23 CLE 11
  5. 5 MIN 24 CLE 16
  6. 6 MIN 17 CLE 13
  7. 7 MIN 23 CLE 21
  8. 8 MIN 16 CLE 20
  9. 9 MIN 17 CLE 26
  10. 10 MIN 16 CLE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 68% of them, Browns 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+21.8%
Vikings by 9–1620.8%
Vikings by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation3.5%
Browns by 1–815.7%
Browns by 9–168.9%
Browns by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Reichard, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:34 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 235 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +19% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q2 1:34 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 11:05 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% MIN MIN: Punt
4 Q3 4:37 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:09 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:47 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +19% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 9:46 W. Reichard missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 14 of 18 from 45+ before +15% CLE MIN: Punt
8 Q4 0:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Donovan Jackson (MIN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Jurgens (MIN G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 54% · Browns 46%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
2.4 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 68% · Browns 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Vikings · Browns

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