luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Vikings vs Browns, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Browns 21–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:34 left): Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 21
Cleveland Browns 17

October 5, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +48 Vikings lucky · −48 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 39 CLE 17
  2. 2 MIN 31 CLE 17
  3. 3 MIN 34 CLE 24
  4. 4 MIN 21 CLE 15
  5. 5 MIN 23 CLE 21
  6. 6 MIN 16 CLE 19
  7. 7 MIN 14 CLE 19
  8. 8 MIN 17 CLE 26
  9. 9 MIN 6 CLE 20
  10. 10 MIN 7 CLE 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 52% of them, Browns 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+11.9%
Vikings by 9–1614.4%
Vikings by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation5.0%
Browns by 1–822.1%
Browns by 9–1614.9%
Browns by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Browns: the final margin was Vikings by 4, without the luck Vikings by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 50 yards, Browns 10 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Vikings (Will Reichard), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q1 14:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:49 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kobe King), 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 6:14 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 3:53 Offensive Offside on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q1 0:34 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% MIN +5.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.2 pts
Q2 12:38 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +6% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 8:49 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tai Felton), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 0:16 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:09 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kobe King), 10 yards +4% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 14:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 12 yards +6% MIN +2.0 pts
Q3 11:05 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% MIN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Tre Avery), 1 yard 0% MIN +0.1 pts
Q4 14:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 15 yards +7% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 5:11 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:34 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 235 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +19% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q2 1:34 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 4:37 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:09 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:52 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 11:47 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 9:46 W. Reichard missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 14 of 18 from 45+ before +15% CLE MIN: Punt
8 Q4 0:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Donovan Jackson (MIN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Jurgens (MIN G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 83% · Browns 17%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
2.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 52% · Browns 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Vikings · Browns

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