luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Texans at Ravens, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Ravens 44–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 44
Baltimore Ravens 10

October 5, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +21 Texans about even · −21 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Ravens win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 41 BAL 16
  2. 2 HOU 36 BAL 17
  3. 3 HOU 30 BAL 14
  4. 4 HOU 19 BAL 6
  5. 5 HOU 40 BAL 30
  6. 6 HOU 24 BAL 17
  7. 7 HOU 14 BAL 10
  8. 8 HOU 37 BAL 35
  9. 9 HOU 17 BAL 20
  10. 10 HOU 17 BAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 79% of them, Ravens 21%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+30.5%
Texans by 9–1621.1%
Texans by 1–824.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Ravens by 1–812.3%
Ravens by 9–165.7%
Ravens by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.5 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 34, without the luck Texans by 15.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • T. Loop, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 57 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 26 yards, Ravens 9 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:39 Illegal Motion on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +2.4 pts
Q2 9:46 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 6:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jayden Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% BAL +2.7 pts
Q2 5:31 False Start on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:56 Defensive Offside on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% HOU +2.3 pts
Q2 0:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 9 yards 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:08 Illegal Contact on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 9:38 False Start on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 3:11 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Face Mask on the Ravens (Malaki Starks), 2 yards 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 8 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 8:59 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:50 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 14:55 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BAL BAL: Punt
5 Q2 12:04 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% BAL HOU: Field goal
6 Q2 11:23 K. Fairbairn made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 51 of 72 from 45+ before +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jayden Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 110 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +8% BAL BAL: Punt
8 Q2 5:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 8.8 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Roquan Smith (BAL LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Ravens 0%

Final margin
Texans by 34
Luck in points
18.5 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Texans 79% · Ravens 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Texans · Ravens

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