luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Giants at Saints, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Giants 26–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 52 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New York Giants 14
New Orleans Saints 26

October 5, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −1.5

Luck index +24 Saints about even · −24 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 17 NO 6
  2. 2 NYG 13 NO 10
  3. 3 NYG 7 NO 9
  4. 4 NYG 10 NO 13
  5. 5 NYG 17 NO 23
  6. 6 NYG 17 NO 26
  7. 7 NYG 10 NO 21
  8. 8 NYG 10 NO 24
  9. 9 NYG 6 NO 23
  10. 10 NYG 7 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 24% of them, Saints 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+2.1%
Giants by 9–167.4%
Giants by 1–813.2%
Level after regulation4.5%
Saints by 1–826.0%
Saints by 9–1624.5%
Saints by 17+22.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Grupe, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. Grupe, 52 yds missed · 71% expected
  • B. Grupe, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Grupe, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 25 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1819 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +16% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 1:30 B. Grupe missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 20 of 28 from 45+ before +11% NYG NO: Field goal
3 Q2 1:13 The Giants fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NO NYG: Turnover
4 Q3 12:45 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
5 Q3 11:01 The Giants fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% NO NYG: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 6:57 B. Grupe made 28-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +7% NYG NO: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 2:31 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 The Giants fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +52% NO NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Young (NO DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 26% · Saints 74%

Final margin
Saints by 12
Luck in points
6.8 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 24% · Saints 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Giants · Saints

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