2025 season · final

New York Giants, 2025: game by game

The Giants went 4–13 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–7.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Commanders	L 6–21	3%	−3
Week 2	@ Cowboys	L 37–40	88%	−88
Week 3	vs Chiefs	L 9–22	35%	−35
Week 4	vs Chargers	W 21–18	18%	+82
Week 5	@ Saints	L 14–26	15%	−15
Week 6	vs Eagles	W 34–17	83%	+17
Week 7	@ Broncos	L 32–33	29%	−29
Week 8	@ Eagles	L 20–38	19%	−19
Week 9	vs 49ers	L 24–34	22%	−22
Week 10	@ Bears	L 20–24	15%	−15
Week 11	vs Packers	L 20–27	10%	−10
Week 12	@ Lions	L 27–34	25%	−25
Week 13	@ Patriots	L 15–33	7%	−7
Week 15	vs Commanders	L 21–29	42%	−42
Week 16	vs Vikings	L 13–16	51%	−51
Week 17	@ Raiders	W 34–10	96%	+4
Week 18	vs Cowboys	W 34–17	33%	+67

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −3 @ WAS

Wk 2 −88 @ DAL

Wk 3 −35 vs KC

Wk 4 +82 vs LAC

Wk 5 −15 @ NO

Wk 6 +17 vs PHI

Wk 7 −29 @ DEN

Wk 8 −19 @ PHI

Wk 9 −22 vs SF

Wk 10 −15 @ CHI

Wk 11 −10 vs GB

Wk 12 −25 @ DET

Wk 13 −7 @ NE

Wk 15 −42 vs WAS

Wk 16 −51 vs MIN

Wk 17 +4 @ LV

Wk 18 +67 vs DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.52	+10.1
Injuries	+0.13	+3.3
Rest	+0.02	+0.8
Drops	−0.06	+13.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.32	−5.4
Fumble bounces	−0.48	−6.2
Kicks	−0.58	−3.0