luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Giants at Broncos, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Giants 33–32, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:49 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 1 yard, worth 39 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 32
Denver Broncos 33

October 19, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −7.5

Luck index +29 Broncos lucky · −29 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Broncos win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 34 DEN 17
  2. 2 NYG 33 DEN 25
  3. 3 NYG 24 DEN 21
  4. 4 NYG 23 DEN 25
  5. 5 NYG 23 DEN 27
  6. 6 NYG 13 DEN 20
  7. 7 NYG 24 DEN 34
  8. 8 NYG 20 DEN 34
  9. 9 NYG 22 DEN 40
  10. 10 NYG 13 DEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 29% of them, Broncos 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.3%
Giants by 9–168.0%
Giants by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Broncos by 1–824.8%
Broncos by 9–1620.0%
Broncos by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Giants: the final margin was Broncos by 1, without the luck Broncos by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 8 for 36 yards, Broncos 11 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:38 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.5 pts
Q1 7:29 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Zach Allen), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 12:11 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 9:12 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:16 Delay of Game on the Giants, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Ja'Quan McMillian), 15 yards +4% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 0:43 False Start on the Broncos (Troy Franklin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 12:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Jahdae Barron), 3 yards +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 9:39 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +1.3 pts
Q3 9:17 Face Mask on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 15 yards +1% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 2:41 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (JL Skinner), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 10:22 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 8:09 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q4 6:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 4 yards 0% DEN +2.1 pts
Q4 4:15 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:14 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.1 pts
Q4 1:08 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 15 yards +21% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 1 yard +39% NYG +4.8 pts
Q4 0:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap +11% DEN +0.1 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:56 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% DEN NYG: Punt
2 Q4 2:14 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +25% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:08 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3339 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +21% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:01 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +34% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 1 yardJudgment calls +39% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:37 The Giants missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +12% DEN –
7 Q4 0:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Brian Burns), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 22 flags in 5450 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 W. Lutz made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +11% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 12% · Broncos 88%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
4.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 29% · Broncos 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Giants · Broncos

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