luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Giants at Broncos, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Giants 33–32, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.3 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:01 left): the Giants got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 40 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 32
Denver Broncos 33

October 19, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −7.5

Luck index +48 Broncos lucky · −48 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 43 DEN 20
  2. 2 NYG 31 DEN 16
  3. 3 NYG 27 DEN 17
  4. 4 NYG 24 DEN 17
  5. 5 NYG 26 DEN 23
  6. 6 NYG 25 DEN 27
  7. 7 NYG 14 DEN 20
  8. 8 NYG 14 DEN 24
  9. 9 NYG 13 DEN 27
  10. 10 NYG 9 DEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 48% of them, Broncos 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+11.1%
Giants by 9–1613.7%
Giants by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.4%
Broncos by 1–820.8%
Broncos by 9–1615.7%
Broncos by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 10.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 4:56 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% DEN NYG: Punt
2 Q4 2:14 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +25% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:14 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +19% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:08 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3339 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +21% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:01 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 1 yardsJudgment calls +39% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:37 The Giants missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +12% DEN –
8 Q4 0:02 W. Lutz made 39-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +35% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Powers (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 6% · Broncos 94%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
9.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 48% · Broncos 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Giants · Broncos

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