Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025
Falcons at 49ers, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Falcons 20–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:27 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 13, worth 10 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 10 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 49ers lucky · −26 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 3, 49ers win 7.
- 1 ATL 31 SF 17
- 2 ATL 24 SF 17
- 3 ATL 17 SF 14
- 4 ATL 6 SF 8
- 5 ATL 3 SF 7
- 6 ATL 6 SF 13
- 7 ATL 9 SF 20
- 8 ATL 13 SF 27
- 9 ATL 30 SF 48
- 10 ATL 13 SF 37
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 26% of them, 49ers 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 15.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 27.2% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 21.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Romo, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- E. Pineiro, 55 yds made · 70% expected
- E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 43 yards, 49ers 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:31 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% SF +3.6 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards | +1% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:22 | Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Marques Sigle), 5 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 15 yards | +6% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 13 yards | +3% SF +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:18 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards | +3% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:05 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +1.3 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:31 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 13:37 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% SF | ATL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 4245 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 | +6% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:32 | The Falcons fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% SF | ATL: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 3:27 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:11 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% SF | ATL: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:02 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% SF | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 8:20 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +8% SF | ATL: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.4 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Upton Stout (SF CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Patrick Taylor (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Yetur Gross-Matos (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 43% · 49ers 57%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 8.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 26% · 49ers 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Falcons · 
49ers
More from Week 7 2025
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 33–31 · replay 59% for the winner
- Rams vs Jaguars LA 35–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Panthers at Jets CAR 13–6 · replay 88% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 31–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Browns CLE 31–6 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Titans NE 31–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Saints at Bears CHI 26–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Vikings PHI 28–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers IND 38–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Giants at Broncos DEN 33–32 · replay 71% for the winner
- Packers at Cardinals GB 27–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 44–22 · replay 78% for the winner
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