luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 84% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 0
Kansas City Chiefs 31

October 19, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −13.5

Luck index +1 Chiefs about even · −1 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 LV 10 KC 13
  2. 2 LV 19 KC 28
  3. 3 LV 14 KC 26
  4. 4 LV 7 KC 21
  5. 5 LV 13 KC 30
  6. 6 LV 7 KC 27
  7. 7 LV 7 KC 30
  8. 8 LV 0 KC 27
  9. 9 LV 7 KC 38
  10. 10 LV 0 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 1% of them, Chiefs 99%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.0%
Raiders by 9–160.1%
Raiders by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.3%
Chiefs by 1–83.6%
Chiefs by 9–1611.8%
Chiefs by 17+83.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 16.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:00 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:08 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 2 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 463 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:58 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LV LV: Punt
4 Q1 5:18 Illegal Contact on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3740 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% LV LV: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:40 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +3% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:44 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:17 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (LV WR), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 31
Luck in points
14.3 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 1% · Chiefs 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Raiders · Chiefs

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