luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Patriots at Titans, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Titans 31–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:25 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 16 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 31
Tennessee Titans 13

October 19, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −6.5

Luck index +8 Patriots about even · −8 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 NE 38 TEN 9
  2. 2 NE 41 TEN 17
  3. 3 NE 33 TEN 13
  4. 4 NE 31 TEN 14
  5. 5 NE 24 TEN 10
  6. 6 NE 16 TEN 5
  7. 7 NE 22 TEN 14
  8. 8 NE 19 TEN 14
  9. 9 NE 23 TEN 20
  10. 10 NE 13 TEN 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 92% of them, Titans 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+53.1%
Patriots by 9–1621.1%
Patriots by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Titans by 1–84.9%
Titans by 9–161.6%
Titans by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 14.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Borregales, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:24 J. Slye made 49-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 50 of 76 from 45+ before +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:38 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:55 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NE TEN: Field goal
4 Q2 1:53 J. Slye made 50-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 51 of 77 from 45+ before +9% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:03 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 13:51 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:25 The Titans fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +16% NE TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mike Brown (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaylinn Hawkins (NE S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jaylinn Hawkins (NE FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Titans 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 18
Luck in points
3.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 92% · Titans 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Patriots · Titans

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