AFC East
New England Patriots: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Patriots have won 59 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 56.2. Luck added 2.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+2.2 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−1.2).
2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 1.1 (−0.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–1 | 1.1 | −0.1 | 0–1 | +3.18 | – |
| 2025 | 14–3 | 12.0 | +2.0 | 7–3 | −0.13 | 3–1 |
| 2024 | 4–13 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 3–6 | −2.30 | – |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 4.5 | −0.5 | 4–8 | −0.68 | – |
| 2022 | 8–9 | 9.2 | −1.2 | 4–4 | −0.22 | – |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 3–3 | +0.60 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 3–4 | +0.91 | – |
| 2019 | 12–4 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 4–3 | +1.40 | 0–1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Patriots take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 8 | vs Jets | W 25–22 | 9% | +91 |
| 2019 Week 12 | vs Cowboys | W 13–9 | 14% | +86 |
| 2023 Week 7 | vs Bills | W 29–25 | 18% | +82 |
| 2021 Week 8 | @ Chargers | W 27–24 | 24% | +76 |
| 2024 Week 18 | vs Bills | W 23–16 | 26% | +74 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Patriots would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 18 | @ Dolphins | L 24–33 | 72% | −72 |
| 2025 Super Bowl | vs Seahawks | L 13–29 | 70% | −70 |
| 2024 Week 5 | vs Dolphins | L 10–15 | 68% | −68 |
| 2024 Week 13 | vs Colts | L 24–25 | 66% | −66 |
| 2022 Week 12 | @ Vikings | L 26–33 | 65% | −65 |
