AFC East
New England Patriots: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Patriots have won 59 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 56.1. Luck added 2.9 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+2.4 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−1.9).
2026: 5–4 so far, replay wins 4.9 (+0.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 3–2 | −0.11 | – |
| 2025 | 14–3 | 12.1 | +1.9 | 7–3 | +0.23 | 3–1 |
| 2024 | 4–13 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 3–6 | −1.10 | – |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 4–8 | −0.86 | – |
| 2022 | 8–9 | 9.9 | −1.9 | 4–4 | −0.44 | – |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 3–3 | +0.88 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 3–4 | +0.49 | – |
| 2019 | 12–4 | 9.6 | +2.4 | 4–3 | +0.59 | 0–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.9 | +0.63 | −0.24 | +0.39 | +0.11 | +0.24 | +0.35 |
| 2024 | +0.2 | −0.75 | −0.07 | +0.60 | −0.55 | +0.24 | −0.01 |
| 2023 | −0.3 | −0.16 | −0.45 | −0.10 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.17 |
| 2022 | −1.9 | −0.63 | −0.03 | −0.48 | −0.22 | +0.24 | −0.25 |
| 2021 | +0.3 | −0.29 | +0.22 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +0.41 | +0.28 |
| 2020 | +0.2 | +0.08 | +0.85 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.11 |
| 2019 | +2.4 | −0.22 | −0.32 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.11 | +0.45 |
| Since 2019 | +2.9 | −1.34 | −0.03 | +0.41 | −0.11 | +1.15 | +0.54 |
Are the Patriots lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Patriots have won 59 regular-season games from play worth 56.1: +2.9 wins of luck, the 11th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Patriots been so lucky?
Most of it came from injuries (+1.1 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (+0.5 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 28–31 since 2019, where the replays give them 25.8 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Patriots’ luckiest season?
2019: 12–4 from play worth 9.6 wins, +2.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2022: 8–9 from play worth 9.9 (−1.9).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Patriots’ luckiest wins
Wins the Patriots take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 12 | vs Cowboys | W 13–9 | 12% | +88 |
| 2024 Week 8 | vs Jets | W 25–22 | 14% | +86 |
| 2023 Week 7 | vs Bills | W 29–25 | 18% | +82 |
| 2021 Week 8 | @ Chargers | W 27–24 | 25% | +75 |
| 2019 Week 4 | @ Bills | W 16–10 | 26% | +74 |
The Patriots’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Patriots would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 5 | vs Dolphins | L 10–15 | 84% | −84 |
| 2022 Week 12 | @ Vikings | L 26–33 | 79% | −79 |
| 2021 Week 18 | @ Dolphins | L 24–33 | 73% | −73 |
| 2022 Week 15 | @ Raiders | L 24–30 | 72% | −72 |
| 2024 Week 13 | vs Colts | L 24–25 | 70% | −70 |
