2019 season · final
New England Patriots, 2019: game by game
The Patriots went 12–4 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | W 33–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 43–0 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | vs Jets | W 30–14 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Bills | W 16–10 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 5 | @ Washington | W 33–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 6 | vs Giants | W 35–14 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 7 | @ Jets | W 33–0 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 8 | vs Browns | W 27–13 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 9 | @ Ravens | L 20–37 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 11 | @ Eagles | W 17–10 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 12 | vs Cowboys | W 13–9 | 12% | +88 |
| Week 13 | @ Texans | L 22–28 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 14 | vs Chiefs | L 16–23 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 15 | @ Bengals | W 34–13 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 16 | vs Bills | W 24–17 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | L 24–27 | 57% | −57 |
| Wild Card | vs Titans | L 13–20 | 59% | −59 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.45 | +14.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.29 | +10.8 |
| Injuries | +0.11 | +6.6 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −2.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.22 | −1.2 |
| Kicks | −0.32 | −22.3 |