luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2019 · October 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Patriots, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Giants 35–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10.

The Patriots won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 90% of the time; with this day’s form, 59%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 89% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:54 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 35 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 14
New England Patriots 35

October 10, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −16.5

Luck index +41 Patriots lucky · −41 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 NYG 39 NE 21
  2. 2 NYG 24 NE 13
  3. 3 NYG 25 NE 20
  4. 4 NYG 24 NE 22
  5. 5 NYG 24 NE 26
  6. 6 NYG 24 NE 30
  7. 7 NYG 6 NE 16
  8. 8 NYG 27 NE 41
  9. 9 NYG 27 NE 45
  10. 10 NYG 22 NE 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Patriots won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 90% of the time; with this day’s form, 59%.

31 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.11 worse by 0.08
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.17 better by 0.14
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.17 worse by 0.15
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.04 better by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 41% of them, Patriots 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+8.6%
Giants by 9–1612.8%
Giants by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Patriots by 1–823.6%
Patriots by 9–1616.0%
Patriots by 17+17.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 21, without the luck Patriots by 20.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Giants 5 for 40 yards, Patriots 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Markus Golden), 15 yards +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 14:06 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 9:19 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 8:28 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Alec Ogletree), 5 yards +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYG +2.1 pts
Q3 4:20 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 5 yards +6% NE +2.8 pts
Q3 2:47 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q4 3:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 5 yards 0% NE +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:27 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% NYG NE: Punt
2 Q1 4:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% NE NE: Punt
3 Q1 1:48 Blocked punt by the PatriotsSpecial teams +13% NE NE: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 4:54 The Patriots fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +35% NYG NE: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:20 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 325 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% NE NE: Missed field goal
6 Q3 2:52 M. Nugent missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% NYG NE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 9:33 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% NYG NE: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 8:43 The Giants fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +18% NE NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 21
Luck in points
0.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 20.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 41% · Patriots 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Giants · Patriots

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