luckadjusted

NFC East

New York Giants: how lucky, season by season

Since 2019, the Giants have won 36.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 39.8. Luck cost them 3.3 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+2.5 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−2.2).

2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 0.2 (+0.8 luck). 2026 game by game

Luck in wins, by season

Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.

SeasonRecordReplay winsLuckOne-scoreCalls, pts per gamePlayoffs
2026 1–1 0.2 +0.8 1–0 +2.52 –
2025 4–13 6.2 −2.2 1–7 +1.58 –
2024 3–14 4.0 −1.1 1–8 −0.32 –
2023 6–11 3.5 +2.5 4–4 −0.65 –
2022 9–7–1 9.2 +0.3 8–4–1 −0.01 1–1
2021 4–13 3.9 +0.1 3–3 +1.62 –
2020 6–10 6.8 −0.8 5–5 −0.20 –
2019 4–12 6.2 −2.2 2–5 +0.90 –

Luckiest wins

Wins the Giants take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2025 Week 4 vs Chargers W 21–18 10% +90
2021 Week 9 vs Raiders W 23–16 13% +87
2026 Week 1 vs Cowboys W 28–20 15% +85
2021 Week 4 @ Saints W 27–21 17% +83
2019 Week 3 @ Buccaneers W 32–31 17% +83

Unluckiest losses

Losses the Giants would win most often in a replay.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2024 Week 10 @ Panthers L 17–20 85% −85
2025 Week 2 @ Cowboys L 37–40 85% −85
2020 Week 2 @ Bears L 13–17 78% −78
2020 Week 1 vs Steelers L 16–26 73% −73
2022 Week 16 @ Vikings L 24–27 65% −65