NFC East
New York Giants: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Giants have won 36.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 39.9. Luck cost them 3.4 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+2.0 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−2.5).
2026: 5–2–1 so far, replay wins 3.9 (+1.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5–2–1 | 3.9 | +1.6 | 4–1–1 | +0.58 | – |
| 2025 | 4–13 | 5.9 | −1.9 | 1–7 | +1.04 | – |
| 2024 | 3–14 | 3.7 | −0.7 | 1–8 | +0.03 | – |
| 2023 | 6–11 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 4–4 | −1.50 | – |
| 2022 | 9–7–1 | 9.1 | +0.4 | 8–4–1 | +0.28 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 4–13 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 3–3 | +0.68 | – |
| 2020 | 6–10 | 6.8 | −0.8 | 5–5 | −1.25 | – |
| 2019 | 4–12 | 6.5 | −2.5 | 2–5 | +0.49 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.9 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.06 | +0.52 | +0.13 | −0.32 |
| 2024 | −0.7 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.27 | +0.09 |
| 2023 | +2.0 | +0.46 | +0.09 | +0.57 | −0.75 | −0.07 | −0.39 |
| 2022 | +0.4 | +0.16 | +0.79 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.25 |
| 2021 | +0.1 | +0.17 | +0.11 | 0.00 | +0.34 | −0.40 | −0.07 |
| 2020 | −0.8 | −0.04 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.37 | +0.14 |
| 2019 | −2.5 | −0.08 | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.12 |
| Since 2019 | −3.4 | −0.11 | +1.13 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.28 | −0.42 |
Are the Giants lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Giants have won 36.5 regular-season games from play worth 39.9: −3.4 wins of luck, the 11th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Giants had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from 3rd & 4th downs (−0.4 wins) and judgment calls (−0.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 24–36–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 24.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Giants’ luckiest season?
2023: 6–11 from play worth 4.0 wins, +2.0 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 4–12 from play worth 6.5 (−2.5).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Giants’ luckiest wins
Wins the Giants take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 9 | vs Raiders | W 23–16 | 14% | +86 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Cowboys | W 28–20 | 15% | +85 |
| 2021 Week 4 | @ Saints | W 27–21 | 17% | +83 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Chargers | W 21–18 | 18% | +82 |
| 2019 Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | W 32–31 | 19% | +81 |
The Giants’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Giants would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Cowboys | L 37–40 | 88% | −88 |
| 2020 Week 2 | @ Bears | L 13–17 | 79% | −79 |
| 2024 Week 10 | vs Panthers | L 17–20 | 76% | −76 |
| 2020 Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 16–26 | 71% | −71 |
| 2022 Week 16 | @ Vikings | L 24–27 | 67% | −67 |
