luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Giants vs Panthers, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Giants 20–17, but the replays lean toward the Giants: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Giants were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (OT, 9:55 left): the Giants fumbled and the Panthers recovered, worth 21 points of win probability to the Panthers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:34 left): C. Hubbard dropped a catchable pass.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 17
Carolina Panthers 20

November 10, 2024 · Allianz Arena · Closing line: Giants −6.5

Luck index +76 Panthers very lucky · −76 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 37 CAR 9
  2. 2 NYG 26 CAR 6
  3. 3 NYG 37 CAR 20
  4. 4 NYG 20 CAR 7
  5. 5 NYG 26 CAR 16
  6. 6 NYG 23 CAR 16
  7. 7 NYG 38 CAR 34
  8. 8 NYG 28 CAR 26
  9. 9 NYG 21 CAR 25
  10. 10 NYG 16 CAR 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 76% of them, Panthers 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+30.3%
Giants by 9–1620.6%
Giants by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Panthers by 1–813.1%
Panthers by 9–167.2%
Panthers by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Panthers by 3, without the luck Panthers by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 3 for 15 yards, Panthers 10 for 87 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 43 yards +10% NYG +3.0 pts
Q1 11:55 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CAR +0.4 pts
Q1 5:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 0:22 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 14:55 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Panthers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q2 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 9 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 0:27 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q3 6:14 Defensive Holding on the Giants (D.J. Davidson), 5 yards +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 5:16 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% NYG +2.3 pts
Q3 5:11 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +2% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 3:54 Offensive Offside on the Giants (Wan'Dale Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 0:05 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 0 yards 0% NYG 0.0 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 43 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2659 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +10% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q2 1:54 The Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% CAR NYG: End of half
3 Q4 8:08 The Panthers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NYG CAR: Punt
4 Q4 6:02 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +12% CAR NYG: Punt
5 Q4 2:34 C. Hubbard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 86 catchable balls before this +21% NYG CAR: Punt
6 Q4 0:13 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% CAR NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 0:09 G. Gano made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +10% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 OT 9:55 The game turned hereThe Giants fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Charles Harris (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jason Pinnock (NYG SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 27% · Panthers 73%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
1.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 76% · Panthers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Giants · Panthers

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