luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Giants vs Panthers, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers stole one. They beat the Giants 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.8 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Giants were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:02 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 44 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 17
Carolina Panthers 20

November 10, 2024 · Allianz Arena · Closing line: Giants −6.5

Luck index +85 Panthers very lucky · −85 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 46 CAR 17
  2. 2 NYG 38 CAR 16
  3. 3 NYG 45 CAR 27
  4. 4 NYG 28 CAR 13
  5. 5 NYG 29 CAR 17
  6. 6 NYG 22 CAR 13
  7. 7 NYG 34 CAR 28
  8. 8 NYG 10 CAR 7
  9. 9 NYG 23 CAR 26
  10. 10 NYG 30 CAR 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 85% of them, Panthers 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+42.1%
Giants by 9–1622.5%
Giants by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–89.4%
Panthers by 9–163.8%
Panthers by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 43 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2659 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q2 1:54 The Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% CAR NYG: End of half
3 Q4 8:08 The Panthers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NYG CAR: Punt
4 Q4 6:02 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +44% CAR NYG: Punt
5 Q4 2:34 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedC. Hubbard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 86 catchable balls before this +19% NYG CAR: Punt
6 Q4 0:13 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% CAR NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 0:09 G. Gano made 42-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +11% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 QOT 9:55 The Giants fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Charles Harris (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Pinnock (NYG SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 16% · Panthers 84%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
4.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 85% · Panthers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Giants · Panthers

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