luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 34–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:10 left): the Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 34
Dallas Cowboys 6

November 10, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 49 DAL 7
  2. 2 PHI 36 DAL 3
  3. 3 PHI 33 DAL 3
  4. 4 PHI 26 DAL 0
  5. 5 PHI 33 DAL 10
  6. 6 PHI 31 DAL 12
  7. 7 PHI 27 DAL 10
  8. 8 PHI 27 DAL 14
  9. 9 PHI 20 DAL 10
  10. 10 PHI 7 DAL 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 99% of them, Cowboys 1%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+86.9%
Eagles by 9–169.1%
Eagles by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.3%
Cowboys by 1–80.9%
Cowboys by 9–160.2%
Cowboys by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 12.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:57 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 7:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:33 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
4 Q2 5:54 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q2 3:10 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PHI DAL: Field goal
6 Q2 2:14 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:56 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% PHI DAL: Field goal
8 Q2 1:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 6.8 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 28
Luck in points
15.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 99% · Cowboys 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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