Week 10 · November 12–16 · 7 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 10 An early look at week 10, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 7 weeks ahead picked 61.3% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Giants by 3.2 · 60% to win
Ours: Giants by 3.2 Commanders win 40% Giants win 60% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Commanders win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 40.5% Giants win 59.5% Middle 50%: Commanders by 6 to Giants by 13 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 19 to Giants by 25 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 23 to Giants by 29 95% Exactly Giants by 3 8.3% Exactly Commanders by 3 7.5% Exactly Giants by 7 5.4% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.2% Exactly Giants by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Giants +2.3 This season, luck taken out Giants +0.8 Last season Giants +0.4 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.4
Lions by 2.6 · 58% to win
Ours: Lions by 2.6 Patriots win 42% Lions win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Patriots win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 42.2% Lions win 57.8% Middle 50%: Patriots by 7 to Lions by 12 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 20 to Lions by 24 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 24 to Lions by 28 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.3% Exactly Patriots by 3 7.6% Exactly Lions by 7 5.3% Exactly Patriots by 7 4.3% Exactly Lions by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Lions +1.6 Quarterbacks Lions +1.4 Last season Patriots +1.0 Home field Lions +0.6
Bills by 7.1 · 70% to win
Ours: Bills by 7.1 Bills win 70% Jets win 30% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Bills win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 70.4% Jets win 29.6% Middle 50%: Bills by 16 to Jets by 3 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 29 to Jets by 15 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 33 to Jets by 19 95% Exactly Bills by 3 7.9% Exactly Jets by 3 6.3% Exactly Bills by 7 5.6% Exactly Bills by 14 4.9% Exactly Bills by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Bills +4.7 This season, luck taken out Bills +2.6 Home field Jets +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +2.2
Saints by 1.6 · 55% to win
Ours: Saints by 1.6 Panthers win 45% Saints win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 45.3% Saints win 54.7% Middle 50%: Panthers by 7 to Saints by 10 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 21 to Saints by 24 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 24 to Saints by 28 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.8% Exactly Saints by 7 5.1% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.5% Exactly Saints by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 This season, luck taken out Panthers +0.7 Last season Panthers +0.1 Quarterbacks Panthers +0.1
Texans by 1.6 · 55% to win
Ours: Texans by 1.6 Texans win 55% Browns win 45% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 54.8% Browns win 45.2% Middle 50%: Texans by 10 to Browns by 7 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 24 to Browns by 21 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 28 to Browns by 24 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.8% Exactly Texans by 7 5.1% Exactly Browns by 7 4.5% Exactly Texans by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texans +3.2 Home field Browns +2.3 Quarterbacks Texans +1.2 This season, luck taken out Browns +0.4
Jaguars by 9.1 · 76% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 9.1 Jaguars win 76% Titans win 24% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Jaguars win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 75.5% Titans win 24.5% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 18 to Jaguars by 1 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 31 to Titans by 13 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 35 to Titans by 17 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 7.5% Exactly Titans by 3 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.2% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +4.7 Last season Jaguars +4.5 Quarterbacks Jaguars +2.3 Home field Titans +2.3
Chiefs by 7.4 · 71% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 7.4 Chiefs win 71% Falcons win 29% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chiefs win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 71.3% Falcons win 28.7% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 17 to Falcons by 3 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 29 to Falcons by 14 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 34 to Falcons by 19 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 7.9% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.1% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.6% Exactly Chiefs by 14 4.9% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +5.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +3.5 Home field Falcons +2.3 Last season Chiefs +1.0
Colts by 5.5 · 66% to win
Ours: Colts by 5.5 Dolphins win 34% Colts win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Dolphins win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 33.8% Colts win 66.2% Middle 50%: Dolphins by 3 to Colts by 14 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 17 to Colts by 28 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 21 to Colts by 31 95% Exactly Colts by 3 8.2% Exactly Dolphins by 3 6.8% Exactly Colts by 7 5.5% Exactly Colts by 14 4.5% Exactly Colts by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Colts +2.3 Last season Colts +1.6 This season, luck taken out Colts +1.4 Quarterbacks Colts +0.2
Packers by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Packers by 1.0 Vikings win 47% Packers win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Vikings win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 46.9% Packers win 53.1% Middle 50%: Vikings by 7 to Packers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 21 to Packers by 23 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 25 to Packers by 27 95% Exactly Packers by 3 8.2% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.9% Exactly Packers by 7 5.1% Exactly Vikings by 7 4.7% Exactly Packers by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Vikings +4.0 Home field Packers +2.3 Quarterbacks Packers +1.6 Last season Packers +1.0
Rams by 5.2 · 65% to win
Ours: Rams by 5.2 Rams win 65% Cardinals win 35% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 65.2% Cardinals win 34.8% Middle 50%: Rams by 14 to Cardinals by 4 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 27 to Cardinals by 17 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 31 to Cardinals by 21 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.2% Exactly Cardinals by 3 6.9% Exactly Rams by 7 5.5% Exactly Rams by 14 4.5% Exactly Rams by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +4.7 Home field Cardinals +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.9 This season, luck taken out Rams +0.9
Seahawks by 2.3 · 57% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 2.3 Seahawks win 57% Raiders win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 56.8% Raiders win 43.2% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 11 to Raiders by 7 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 24 to Raiders by 20 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 28 to Raiders by 24 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.7% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.2% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.4% Exactly Seahawks by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +5.1 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Raiders +0.7 This season, luck taken out Seahawks +0.1
49ers by 2.6 · 58% to win
Ours: 49ers by 2.6 49ers win 58% Cowboys win 42% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← 49ers win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 57.9% Cowboys win 42.1% Middle 50%: 49ers by 12 to Cowboys by 7 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 24 to Cowboys by 20 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 28 to Cowboys by 24 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.3% Exactly Cowboys by 3 7.6% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.3% Exactly Cowboys by 7 4.3% Exactly 49ers by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +3.4 Home field Cowboys +2.3 Last season 49ers +1.2 Quarterbacks 49ers +0.4
Bengals by 4.3 · 63% to win
Ours: Bengals by 4.3 Steelers win 37% Bengals win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Steelers win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 37.3% Bengals win 62.7% Middle 50%: Steelers by 5 to Bengals by 14 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 18 to Bengals by 27 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 22 to Bengals by 31 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.3% Exactly Steelers by 3 7.2% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.5% Exactly Bengals by 14 4.3% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bengals +2.3 This season, luck taken out Bengals +1.8 Quarterbacks Bengals +1.4 Last season Steelers +1.3
Ravens by 9.1 · 75% to win
Ours: Ravens by 9.1 Chargers win 25% Ravens win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chargers win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 24.5% Ravens win 75.5% Middle 50%: Ravens by 1 to Ravens by 18 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 13 to Ravens by 31 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 17 to Ravens by 35 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 7.5% Exactly Chargers by 3 5.5% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.5% Exactly Ravens by 14 5.2% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Ravens +5.1 Home field Ravens +2.3 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.5 Last season Ravens +0.1
Commanders at 
Giants 
