All-time · since 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019
The biggest upset since 2019 by the betting line: the Dolphins beat the Patriots 27–24 (2019, Week 17) as 10% underdogs. The Dolphins got a coin flip: they win 43% of replays. Of the 50 biggest upsets, 17 were deserved on the day.
Ranked by the winner’s chance before kickoff, from the closing spread. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| # | Game | When | Winner before kickoff | Winner wins the replay | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins 27, Patriots 24 | 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 | 10% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 2 | Jets 23, Rams 20 | 2020 Week 15 · Dec 20, 2020 | 10% | 19% | Lucky |
| 3 | Bengals 27, Steelers 17 | 2020 Week 15 · Dec 21, 2020 | 14% | 85% | Deserved |
| 4 | Jaguars 9, Bills 6 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 14% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 5 | Jaguars 26, Colts 11 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 15% | 80% | Deserved |
| 6 | Falcons 26, Saints 9 | 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 | 15% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 7 | Titans 28, Dolphins 27 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2023 | 15% | 4% | Lucky |
| 8 | Texans 41, Chargers 29 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 | 16% | 23% | Lucky |
| 9 | Lions 30, Cardinals 12 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 17% | 18% | Lucky |
| 10 | Panthers 21, Buccaneers 3 | 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 | 17% | 77% | Deserved |
| 11 | Panthers 16, Packers 13 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 18% | 27% | Lucky |
| 12 | Cardinals 18, Rams 16 | 2026 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2026 | 18% | 35% | Lucky |
| 13 | Cardinals 35, Eagles 31 | 2023 Week 17 · Dec 31, 2023 | 19% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 14 | Jets 34, Bengals 31 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 20% | 60% | Deserved |
| 15 | Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 20% | 79% | Deserved |
| 16 | Saints 9, Buccaneers 0 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 20% | 16% | Lucky |
| 17 | Dolphins 16, Colts 12 | 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 | 21% | 8% | Lucky |
| 18 | Raiders 40, Chiefs 32 | 2020 Week 5 · Oct 11, 2020 | 21% | 89% | Deserved |
| 19 | Giants 17, Seahawks 12 | 2020 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2020 | 21% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 20 | Jets 20, Bills 17 | 2022 Week 9 · Nov 6, 2022 | 21% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 21 | Commanders 32, Eagles 21 | 2022 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2022 | 21% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 22 | Raiders 20, Chiefs 14 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2023 | 21% | 75% | Deserved |
| 23 | Dolphins 37, Eagles 31 | 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 | 22% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 24 | Colts 19, Chiefs 13 | 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 | 22% | 83% | Deserved |
| 25 | Washington 29, Panthers 21 | 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 | 22% | 70% | Deserved |
| 26 | Falcons 29, 49ers 22 | 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 | 22% | 65% | Deserved |
| 27 | Broncos 30, Cowboys 16 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 22% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 28 | Texans 22, Titans 13 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 22% | 11% | Lucky |
| 29 | Cowboys 34, Commanders 26 | 2024 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2024 | 22% | 34% | Lucky |
| 30 | Washington 29, Buccaneers 19 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 | 23% | 18% | Lucky |
| 31 | Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18 | 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 | 23% | 13% | Lucky |
| 32 | Panthers 31, Rams 28 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 23% | 19% | Lucky |
| 33 | Titans 28, Ravens 12 | 2019 Divisional round · Jan 11, 2020 | 23% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 34 | Bengals 34, Jaguars 31 | 2023 Week 13 · Dec 4, 2023 | 23% | 65% | Deserved |
| 35 | Bears 24, Packers 22 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 23% | 1% | Lucky |
| 36 | Giants 27, Texans 21 | 2026 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2026 | 23% | 94% | Deserved |
| 37 | Browns 19, 49ers 17 | 2023 Week 6 · Oct 15, 2023 | 24% | 17% | Lucky |
| 38 | Bears 33, Patriots 14 | 2022 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2022 | 24% | 38% | Lucky |
| 39 | Vikings 27, Lions 24 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 24% | 60% | Deserved |
| 40 | Browns 20, Bengals 18 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 24% | 2% | Lucky |
| 41 | Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 | 2026 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2026 | 24% | 4% | Lucky |
| 42 | Buccaneers 55, Rams 40 | 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 | 25% | 38% | Lucky |
| 43 | Raiders 26, Ravens 23 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 25% | 15% | Lucky |
| 44 | Eagles 25, 49ers 20 | 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 | 26% | 12% | Lucky |
| 45 | Dolphins 43, 49ers 17 | 2020 Week 5 · Oct 11, 2020 | 26% | 86% | Deserved |
| 46 | Raiders 23, Colts 20 | 2021 Week 17 · Jan 2, 2022 | 26% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 47 | Giants 27, Packers 22 | 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 | 26% | 68% | Deserved |
| 48 | Packers 29, Lions 22 | 2023 Week 12 · Nov 23, 2023 | 26% | 73% | Deserved |
| 49 | Commanders 45, Lions 31 | 2024 Divisional round · Jan 18, 2025 | 26% | 77% | Deserved |
| 50 | 49ers 26, Rams 23 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2025 | 26% | 26% | Lucky |