luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Washington, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington stole one. They beat the Buccaneers 29–19, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.8 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:38 left): Washington were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Washington Football Team 29

November 14, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +83 Washington very lucky · −83 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Washington win 2.

  1. 1 TB 37 WAS 10
  2. 2 TB 35 WAS 14
  3. 3 TB 26 WAS 9
  4. 4 TB 20 WAS 6
  5. 5 TB 31 WAS 21
  6. 6 TB 14 WAS 7
  7. 7 TB 34 WAS 30
  8. 8 TB 16 WAS 14
  9. 9 TB 24 WAS 27
  10. 10 TB 14 WAS 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 83% of them, Washington 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+33.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1624.6%
Buccaneers by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Washington by 1–810.9%
Washington by 9–164.0%
Washington by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% WAS TB: Punt
2 Q1 9:00 Washington converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 4:01 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q2 14:15 Washington converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:27 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:38 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedWashington fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% TB WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:02 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:05 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 16% · Washington 84%

Final margin
Washington by 10
Luck in points
4.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 83% · Washington 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Buccaneers · Washington

More from Week 10 2021