luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Broncos, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Broncos 30–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:14 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 31 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 30
Denver Broncos 13

November 14, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1

Luck index +29 Eagles lucky · −29 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Broncos win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 30 DEN 0
  2. 2 PHI 37 DEN 17
  3. 3 PHI 35 DEN 20
  4. 4 PHI 27 DEN 16
  5. 5 PHI 28 DEN 20
  6. 6 PHI 16 DEN 10
  7. 7 PHI 20 DEN 17
  8. 8 PHI 10 DEN 13
  9. 9 PHI 17 DEN 25
  10. 10 PHI 17 DEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 71% of them, Broncos 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+24.8%
Eagles by 9–1621.1%
Eagles by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation3.4%
Broncos by 1–816.6%
Broncos by 9–167.4%
Broncos by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.7 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 17, without the luck Eagles by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds made · 56% expected
  • B. McManus, 22 yds blocked · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 89 yards, Broncos 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:16 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Broncos (Teddy Bridgewater), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q1 0:46 Taunting on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 15 yards +5% DEN +1.8 pts
Q1 0:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 10:47 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 3:02 False Start on the Broncos (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +4% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 6:42 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Eric Saubert), 10 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 6:35 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 10 yards +4% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Albert Okwuegbunam), 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% PHI +1.8 pts
Q4 3:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Steven Nelson), 35 yards 0% DEN +2.2 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:24 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% DEN PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 5:21 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:46 Taunting on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:11 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% DEN DEN: End of half
6 Q3 10:56 B. McManus had a 22-yard field goal blockedKicks · 99% expected for him +10% PHI DEN: Field goal
7 Q3 6:42 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedOffensive Holding on the Broncos (Eric Saubert), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 649 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% PHI DEN: Field goal
8 Q3 0:14 The Broncos fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +31% PHI DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bobby Massie (DEN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Strnad (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andre Dillard (PHI T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 82% · Broncos 18%

Final margin
Eagles by 17
Luck in points
13.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 71% · Broncos 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Eagles · Broncos

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