2021 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2021: game by game

The Broncos went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–5.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Giants	W 27–13	72%	+28
Week 2	@ Jaguars	W 23–13	88%	+12
Week 3	vs Jets	W 26–0	95%	+5
Week 4	vs Ravens	L 7–23	12%	−12
Week 5	@ Steelers	L 19–27	51%	−51
Week 6	vs Raiders	L 24–34	57%	−57
Week 7	@ Browns	L 14–17	30%	−30
Week 8	vs Washington	W 17–10	48%	+52
Week 9	@ Cowboys	W 30–16	55%	+45
Week 10	vs Eagles	L 13–30	29%	−29
Week 12	vs Chargers	W 28–13	36%	+64
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 9–22	35%	−35
Week 14	vs Lions	W 38–10	91%	+9
Week 15	vs Bengals	L 10–15	28%	−28
Week 16	@ Raiders	L 13–17	19%	−19
Week 17	@ Chargers	L 13–34	43%	−43
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 24–28	20%	−20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +28 @ NYG

Wk 2 +12 @ JAX

Wk 3 +5 vs NYJ

Wk 4 −12 vs BAL

Wk 5 −51 @ PIT

Wk 6 −57 vs LV

Wk 7 −30 @ CLE

Wk 8 +52 vs WAS

Wk 9 +45 @ DAL

Wk 10 −29 vs PHI

Wk 12 +64 vs LAC

Wk 13 −35 @ KC

Wk 14 +9 vs DET

Wk 15 −28 vs CIN

Wk 16 −19 @ LV

Wk 17 −43 @ LAC

Wk 18 −20 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.23	+16.5
3rd & 4th downs	+0.12	+1.0
Rest	+0.03	+0.6
Kicks	−0.10	+3.5
Injuries	−0.38	−15.9
Fumble bounces	−0.71	−12.6