2021 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2021: game by game

The Broncos went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–5.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Giants	W 27–13	73%	+27
Week 2	@ Jaguars	W 23–13	88%	+12
Week 3	vs Jets	W 26–0	95%	+5
Week 4	vs Ravens	L 7–23	11%	−11
Week 5	@ Steelers	L 19–27	48%	−48
Week 6	vs Raiders	L 24–34	55%	−55
Week 7	@ Browns	L 14–17	31%	−31
Week 8	vs Washington	W 17–10	48%	+52
Week 9	@ Cowboys	W 30–16	52%	+48
Week 10	vs Eagles	L 13–30	30%	−30
Week 12	vs Chargers	W 28–13	39%	+61
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 9–22	35%	−35
Week 14	vs Lions	W 38–10	90%	+10
Week 15	vs Bengals	L 10–15	33%	−33
Week 16	@ Raiders	L 13–17	23%	−23
Week 17	@ Chargers	L 13–34	47%	−47
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 24–28	21%	−21

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +27 @ NYG

Wk 2 +12 @ JAX

Wk 3 +5 vs NYJ

Wk 4 −11 vs BAL

Wk 5 −48 @ PIT

Wk 6 −55 vs LV

Wk 7 −31 @ CLE

Wk 8 +52 vs WAS

Wk 9 +48 @ DAL

Wk 10 −30 vs PHI

Wk 12 +61 vs LAC

Wk 13 −35 @ KC

Wk 14 +10 vs DET

Wk 15 −33 vs CIN

Wk 16 −23 @ LV

Wk 17 −47 @ LAC

Wk 18 −21 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+31.7	+1.87
Kicks	+3.9	+0.23
Rest	+0.6	+0.03
3rd & 4th downs	−2.2	−0.13
Fumble bounces	−9.4	−0.56
Injuries	−21.1	−1.24