2020 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2020: game by game

The Broncos went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Titans	L 14–16	9%	−9
Week 2	@ Steelers	L 21–26	38%	−38
Week 3	vs Buccaneers	L 10–28	14%	−14
Week 4	@ Jets	W 37–28	88%	+12
Week 6	@ Patriots	W 18–12	47%	+53
Week 7	vs Chiefs	L 16–43	15%	−15
Week 8	vs Chargers	W 31–30	17%	+83
Week 9	@ Falcons	L 27–34	40%	−40
Week 10	@ Raiders	L 12–37	7%	−7
Week 11	vs Dolphins	W 20–13	88%	+12
Week 12	vs Saints	L 3–31	16%	−16
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 16–22	11%	−11
Week 14	@ Panthers	W 32–27	59%	+41
Week 15	vs Bills	L 19–48	5%	−5
Week 16	@ Chargers	L 16–19	72%	−72
Week 17	vs Raiders	L 31–32	31%	−31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −9 vs TEN

Wk 2 −38 @ PIT

Wk 3 −14 vs TB

Wk 4 +12 @ NYJ

Wk 6 +53 @ NE

Wk 7 −15 vs KC

Wk 8 +83 vs LAC

Wk 9 −40 @ ATL

Wk 10 −7 @ LV

Wk 11 +12 vs MIA

Wk 12 −16 vs NO

Wk 13 −11 @ KC

Wk 14 +41 @ CAR

Wk 15 −5 vs BUF

Wk 16 −72 @ LAC

Wk 17 −31 vs LV

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.49	+17.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.03	+4.8
Rest	−0.05	−1.6
Fumble bounces	−0.14	−0.4
Injuries	−0.34	−9.6
Kicks	−0.36	−7.8