2020 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2020: game by game

The Broncos went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Titans	L 14–16	10%	−10
Week 2	@ Steelers	L 21–26	36%	−36
Week 3	vs Buccaneers	L 10–28	14%	−14
Week 4	@ Jets	W 37–28	88%	+12
Week 6	@ Patriots	W 18–12	51%	+49
Week 7	vs Chiefs	L 16–43	16%	−16
Week 8	vs Chargers	W 31–30	18%	+82
Week 9	@ Falcons	L 27–34	45%	−45
Week 10	@ Raiders	L 12–37	7%	−7
Week 11	vs Dolphins	W 20–13	87%	+13
Week 12	vs Saints	L 3–31	16%	−16
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 16–22	11%	−11
Week 14	@ Panthers	W 32–27	61%	+39
Week 15	vs Bills	L 19–48	6%	−6
Week 16	@ Chargers	L 16–19	73%	−73
Week 17	vs Raiders	L 31–32	32%	−32

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −10 vs TEN

Wk 2 −36 @ PIT

Wk 3 −14 vs TB

Wk 4 +12 @ NYJ

Wk 6 +49 @ NE

Wk 7 −16 vs KC

Wk 8 +82 vs LAC

Wk 9 −45 @ ATL

Wk 10 −7 @ LV

Wk 11 +13 vs MIA

Wk 12 −16 vs NO

Wk 13 −11 @ KC

Wk 14 +39 @ CAR

Wk 15 −6 vs BUF

Wk 16 −73 @ LAC

Wk 17 −32 vs LV

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+36.6	+2.29
3rd & 4th downs	+3.6	+0.23
Rest	−1.6	−0.10
Kicks	−9.6	−0.60
Injuries	−12.8	−0.80